World Cup Finals Prediction

What I am hoping to see, but not what I expect to see

I could give you a whole bunch of reasons why the Dutch will win on Sunday. Lord knows I want to - it's not only my personal interest, but my professional one as well.

My upcoming statistical analysis hinges on it (the "he" in the linked tweet being Paul the Octopus who predicted a Spanish win).

Behind US and English soccer, the Dutch are my third love.

Then I look at Figures 1 and 2.

Figure 1: Match-by-Match and 3-Match running average Footballer-Rating score by team - dashed line is three match running average (click to enlarge)

Figure 2: Match-by-Match and 3-Match running average Footballer-Rating score differential by team - dashed line is three match running average (click to enlarge)

And Figures 1 & 2 make me face reality: if Spain and The Netherlands play anywhere near to form, the Spaniards will win the World Cup. With over a 1.2 advantage in the 3 match running average score in the Footballer-Rating system, Spain is a 3:1 favorite to defeat the Netherlands. Even more telling is that while the competition has grown tougher and the final four teams have had their Footballer-Rating scores drop accordingly, Spain is the only team to have both their score and score differential be greater than zero in the last match. They've been the only team to really maintain form, albeit a form that earns them 1-0 wins.

Sure, one could claim that Spain benefits in the Footballer-Rating system by increasing their pass percentages by making a far greater number of inconsequential passes. Then again, that's how they open you up to scoring - pass until they see an opening.

The bottom line is that Spain, statistically, is the best team. They play good possession ball, and they wait for you to make a mistake. They took a German team who was rolling, scared them so much that they changed their game plan, and then they punished them for that.

I am happy that this is the final. These two teams are the ones that steamrolled the competition in the run up to the World Cup. If Holland wins, they will be the first team since the 1970 Brazil team to run the table both in the tournament and pre-tournament. Save for their blemish at last year's Confederation Cup tournament against the US, Spain has been just as good.

Alas, I must follow the numbers. Spain will likely win their first World Cup, and deservedly so. Or you could say the stupid octopus made you pick Spain. Either way, Spain is the favorite today.

It's a shame that both teams can't win their first World Cup. I, however, will be the first person to cheer a Dutch upset if it does happen.

Happy World Cup viewing. It's been a heck of ride. Here's hoping the finish is just as good!

PS - If you're looking for a prediction for the 3rd place match, I don't really have one. The Footballer-Rating scores of the teams are a wash. Miroslav Klose may miss the match. Germany's pretty banged up, but gets Thomas Muller back from his one game suspension. Uruguay's Diego Forlan has been one of the more dangerous men in this tournament, scoring from anywhere on the pitch. I would say go with Zonal-Marking's prediction, but they don't have anything up on their site yet. By a flip of a coin, I say it's going to be Germany. And Paul says so too.