Hyperbole and Reality: Why Wenger Needs to Spend Some Money

Arsene Wenger made his annual promise not to spend heavily in the January transfer window today, touching off a firestorm with many Goonners hungry for some silverware. The 7AM Kickoff blog probably has the most balanced review of the magician's pronouncement, rightly criticizing Wenger's hyperbole and asking where he should be willing to spend money.

At some point, Wenger is going to need to spend money to compete for the top of the league. This isn't just my opinion as the data bears out the point as well. The graph below is taken from my recent post on the correlation between squad transfer cost and table position (click to enlarge).





It's clear that Wenger and Arsenal have outperformed the model - he gets better performance out of his meager squad cost than nearly anyone in the league (a more detailed post exploring his performance is coming in a week or so). To 7AM Kickoff's point, he clearly doesn't need to spend 150 million pounds to challenge for a title given his past performance, but it is clear he needs to spend more than he currently is to make such a challenge. The two clubs that have owned him the last few seasons - Chelsea and Manchester United - have huge advantages in squad cost in absolute terms. They also have the advantage directionally, as seen in another graph taken from my post on squad cost vs. table position (click to enlarge).





Gooners eager to throw Arsene out for his performance over the last few seasons need to take a deep breath and realize what he's actually accomplished. He's faced stiffer competition in terms of squad cost each of the last four seasons, and been the lowest spender of the top six clubs in the league. Simply put, the form and table position he's been able to maintain is only due to his ability to leverage the best value and performance in the transfer market. He has no equal in this regard as a manager.

At the same time, Wenger must be willing (and able) to spend some money soon if the goal is truly to compete for silverware. The Gunners can only get better by paying for battle hardened talent that they're critically missing right now. I won't pretend to know exactly what position they should be willing to spend money on (okay, I will make one obvious recommendation - GET A REAL TOP CLASS GOAL KEEPER, ARSENE!). I just know that Arsene's hyperbole justifying inaction in the January transfer window is as bad as the hyperbole coming from Gooners who are even thinking about wanting him dismissed. It's time to meet in the middle, and play for something worth a fight in April and May.