Monday, August 2, 2010

MLS Standings Update: August 2, 2010

The only Fredy the Sounders need: MLS July Player of the Month

It's been a fun several weeks off. I am now married, and the new wife and I have enjoyed a relaxing several weeks of doing anything we wanted. That included catching the Seattle Sounders 2-1 victory over the Colorado Rapids. A lot has changed since my last MLS-related post nearly a month ago. Let's get to it!

Projected MLS Finish as of August 2, 2010 (click to enlarge)

LA fading and Seattle coming on strong

The inevitable is beginning to happen - the LA Galaxy are regressing to historical means for the team in the top league position. In the period of one month they have given up a projected nine points, and are now projected to finish just slightly behind the 64 points claimed by the Houston Dynamo in 2005. Their porous defense has cut into their projected goal differential, lowering it from 40 to 28 over the last month. Adding to their misery, the Galaxy have also been bounced from the US Open Cup and CONCACAF Champions League in the past month. LA is still assured a spot in the MLS Cup playoffs, but their top seed is in great doubt as they falter and Real Salt Lake continues to perform well.

At the northern edge of the West Coast, the Seattle Sounders are rallying. While still a long shot for the playoffs, they've improved their chances by 25% with a draw against Dallas and wins against DC United, Colorado, and San Jose. The Sounders have big matches against the Dynamo, Chivas, and Fire (the return of Freddie Ljungberg), who they are fighting for the final playoff spot. The Sounders suffer from the fact that they are tied with LA with the most matches played to date (19), providing their competition with 2 to 4 games in hand. Nonetheless, this is an impressive turnaround for the team, with the catalyst being the benching and trade of Ljungberg and the additions of N'kufo and Fernandez. We'll see if they can keep league form as they also balance the US Open Cup semifinals in early September and the initial group play matches of CONCACAF Champions League.

Major Movers

Biggest gainers: Sounders FC (+3), San Jose Earthquakes (+2), and Chivas USA (+2). With all the movement coming in the Western Conference, it proves the season long competitiveness of it and how tight the race for the final playoff spot will be.

Biggest losers: Colorado Rapids (-2), Houston Dynamo (-2), and two teams at -1

Golden Boot Update

The table below summarizes where the top 5 goal scorers stand versus historical data. One can see that Edson Buddle is still on his record pace from a games player per goal perspective. Sounders castoff and Philly start Sebastien Le Toux has crept into the standings with his excellent form of late, and is only behind Juan Pablo Angel and Buddle in terms of goal scoring efficiency.

MLS Golden Boot Standings vs. All MLS Goal Scorers in League History (click to enlarge)

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