"Ah, piss off!"
There was a time on Sunday when "King Kenny" and #PissOffWenger were trending on Twitter, demonstrating the reach of the global soccer community and the power of the Kop. Surely there are a lot of Wenger haters not aligned with Liverpool that jumped on the trend once it got going, but the phrase is symbolic of where the two clubs and their managers may be at this late point of the season. All the more fitting because of the fact that they started the season, literally, each at a different place. What a difference eight months makes.
The Match Statistics
Before diving into some thoughts on what ails my Gunners, I'll start with a statistical breakdown of each match - the first of the season at Anfield and this latest one at the Emirates. It provides some insight into what each side should have expected out of both matches, and provides some grounding in my later criticism of Wenger.
Just like this post, the tables below represent the odds of winning a match based upon a binary logistic regression (BLR) that looks at venue and differentials of shots, shots-on-goal, corners, fouls, and fantasy points for yellow and red cards. I've generated summaries of each match's statistics and the resultant odds based upon those statistics. Click on either table to enlarge it.
It wasn't just your eyes that told you Liverpool should have won the match at Anfield - the match statistics bear this out as well. Liverpool had the statistical advantage in every category - shots-on-goal, fouls, and fantasy points were in their favor, while total shots and corners were not (note: it turns out that teams want to have fewer corners and shots versus the opposition, a concept I will explain in a later post). Reina's muffing of Chamakh's shot truly was a gift of a point for the Gunners. Liverpool should have come away with a full three points that day.
Fast forward eight months, and the match at the Emirates was a little more even but still in favor of the Reds again. Arsene Wenger highlighted his team's "difficulty at creating chances" at his post-match news conference. Indeed! Even though Arsenal took 60% more shots than Liverpool, the Gunners had no advantage in shots-on-goal and had 7 more corners than the Reds - all adding up to a huge knock on the Gunners' chances of winning the match. All of this results in dropping Arsenal's odds of winning the match, which are only slightly raised by the two fewer yellow cards. Liverpool's oddity of being only one of three teams in the Premier League from 2005/06 through 2009/10 with a statistically insignificant constant term in their BLR model means that all of those statistical advantages added up to a 69% chance of winning the match, while Arsenal had a 34% chance of winning with such form. The odds were much closer than the first match, and perhaps a draw was warranted based on the statistics and what we all saw with our own eyes.
The bigger problem for Arsenal in the second match was their inability, yet again, to close out a match and take advantage of a lucky break. Statistically they may have been at a disadvantage for a win, but fortune broke their way late and they were a few minutes away from keeping pace with Manchester United. Instead, they walked away with what was a disappointing draw. Such collapses that snatch a loss or a draw from the jaws of victory has been all too common this season.
The Common Denominator - The Defense
What became immediately clear upon replay of the foul that enabled Dirk Kuyt's tying goal was the softness with which Lucas went down. Good for him, as drawing a foul is part of the game. What's more frustrating is how Emanuel Eboue put himself in position to have a foul called. This is symptomatic of wider defensive woes this season that have cost the Gunners a total of what should have been nine additional easy points that would have them top-of-the table right now, as well as the Carling Cup. Recall the following:
- Way back in September Arsenal drew Sunderland 1-1 at the Stadium of Light after leading for nearly 80 minutes. The stoppage time equalizer from Darren Bent came literally on the last play of the match, which was set up by a poor clearance from Gael Clichy.
- In November the Gunners conceded a two goal lead in the final 40 minutes of the match. I recounted here how rare an event that was. It was Tottenham's first win at Arsenal in 17 years.
- It was Abou Diaby providing the exact response for which Newcastle United were looking when they implemented their second half kick-them-off-the-pitch strategy while down by four goals in February. Diaby's sending off began Newcastle's comeback from four goals down, which was a first in the history of the Premier League and perhaps the best example of how Arsenal's defense can both make boneheaded mistakes and crumble under pressure at the same time.
- In the Carling Cup final, it was defensive miscommunication between Laurent Koscielny and Wojciech Szczesny that led the heavily favored Gunners to lose to Birmingham City. This loss, combined with the loss against Newcastle earlier in the month, set up an awful run in March and now April that has seen the Gunners fail to capitalize on any Manchester United stumble and now find them six points adrift of the Premiership title and only two points ahead of Chelsea.
The Transfer Policy Needs to Be Adapted, Arsene
I've written here and here about the impacts the squad and starting XI transfer cost can have on a team's likely finish position. I've also heaped praise on Wenger for grossly outperforming such a model - averaging a third place finish over the last six seasons when his transfer expenditures suggest he should finish 10th. What's also become clear over that time frame is that consistently finishing third isn't meeting the supporters' expectations.
The Swiss Ramble made an excellent post in September 2010 that provides an great summary to Arsenal's financial quandary. Their strategy of not taking on debt to finance transfers has generated tidy annual profits in the transfer market, which helps compensate for their lower commercial income when compared to Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester United. They also have match day income that is the envy of Chelsea and Liverpool, and surpassed only by Manchester United. However, they do have the third highest payroll in the Premier League, outstrip their next closest competitor (Liverpool) by £21M, and have a wage-to-turnover ratio (50%) the envy of everyone else but Manchester United. They may not be paying for transfers in the open market, but they are paying their players wages that are in line with winning championships. And that's the rub.
It's time for Arsene and the Arsenal board to admit the plan has failed. I know that they don't set out to finish third every year, have steadily earlier exits each year in Champions League, and go trophyless in FA Cup and Carling Cup. They set out to win, and they've tried to win in an anti-Chelsea manner. They've had a squad, transfer-wise, that barely maintains the league average transfer cost yet competes with the big boys every year. It also consistently fails to win a trophy. Arsenal has made some good deals (Walcott, Szczesny, Cesc, etc.) along the way, and have a few great academy players in the first team as well (Wilshere and Djourou being the brightest). Save for Djourou, none of those great deals and academy players starts between the goal and the midfield. The Gunners simply need a few more top quality defenders, and they'll have to pay to get them.
Which brings me back to the start of my post and #PissOffWenger. The man elicits such a response partly because he has been around so long, partly because he has been so successful in the past, partly because he's not English, partly because he's been in everyone else's face trying to explain that he's building a team differently, and partly because lately he's been a bit of an insufferable whiner. He may have a few legitimate gripes, but the sheer number of gaffes this season suggests there's more than bad officiating or a league conspiracy at work here. The public manner in which he has vented his frustrations during and after matches makes him seem like a sore loser, and plays right into the role within which the press want him to fit. If you're a defender looking to join a club fighting for the Premiership title, and you perceive that the manager is a bit of a complainer who seems to not be totally in touch with reality, do you take a pass on such a club? If you're Cesc Fabregas and looking at your manager's behavior and comparing it to the fun your Spanish national team squadmates are having playing for Barcelona, is their even a comparison? There's a time to get angry and harass the officials and opposite manager when officiating is biased or play is dirty. But when it seems to become your MO after each loss in the eyes of the public, you have to stop and wonder if that's the best way to build a positive atmosphere at a club expecting to compete for trophies each year.
Wenger is clearly a managerial and financial genius. Of that there is no doubt. Perhaps he needs to hear more people say it before he feels his approach vindicated. Whatever he feels, he needs to move on. He doesn't need to bust the bank and become a £300M transfer cost behemoth like Chelsea. The future of Financial Fair Play will prevent that. What he does need to do is stop having such an aversion to spending ANY money in the transfer market, and look to upgrade the defense this offseason. Finishing third with the cheapest squad to ever do so is no longer good enough. Only championships matter now. This Arsenal team is his team - he owns it lock, stock, and barrel. It will be interesting to see if the old man can adapt his ways enough to get one more championship before he enjoys a well deserved retirement. As Tim at 7AM Kickoff said back in February,
"Wenger made this mess, and only Wenger can sort it out."
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