Farewell, El Capitan

All We're Left With Is Memories and Dreams of What-Might-Have-Been

When I went to bed Sunday night I was planning on spending this evening writing about the 2011-12 EPL season outlook using my input to the Transfer Price Index's season predictions.  I thought I had come to terms with the departure of of Cesc Fabregas over the summer, and certainly in the last week as it became abundantly clear that Barcelona were going to have their man no matter what.  All of that changed on Monday morning, as I woke to the inevitable news of his sale and for some strange reason I felt emotional loss.  It's odd for me, as I've only been following the Gunners for 2+ seasons now.  I certainly have come to love them because of their beautiful play, rich history, and their intention to not buy championships but build teams from the (relative) ground up to win them as a club and not a rich man's toy.  But I've never seen them in person, and certainly have avoided buying any player's jersey in anticipation of the inevitable transfer they will leave upon.  I've intentionally avoided making any emotional attachments knowing the brutal business realities within which a club must work.

At the same time, I've probably never typed "I <3..." for any other player except Cesc.  Those unfortunate enough to listen to my Twitter feed during a match certainly saw that phrase on occasion the last two seasons.  For some reason I was magnetically attracted to Cesc, and loved him for what he embodied and what he stood for the last 5-6 years.  It was the realization Monday morning - the fact that I will likely NEVER type "I <3 Cesc" ever again - that made me think about why such a forgone conclusion seemed to affect me so much.  This blog post is an attempt to explain the thoughts I've had in the last 24 hours.

The Emotional: Breaking Up Is Hard To Do

During the drive in to work on Monday I had a flood of emotions come over me.  Cesc's departure was the first big loss by the club in my brief fandom, so I wondered why this one seemed to bother me so much.  Sure, losing a captain is never easy for club, especially when it seems as if he just might be coming in to his prime.  But as I thought about those emotions, I concluded it was something deeper.  I finally realized what was bothering me- these are some of the same emotions I felt when I went through my divorce from my first wife.  Certainly this was nowhere near as personal, nowhere near as intense, but the feelings were similar nonetheless.

• Betrayal of promises of a commitment to the club and its goals.  


• The finality of it all after such a long transfer process.


• Even the issue of seeing someone you considered committed to you (or your club) kiss the suitor to which you lost them.  

And that's how I choose to view Cesc's departure: a divorce, or at least an end to a long-term relationship where the two involved in the relationship made life-altering plans around each other.

Marriage Counseling, Arsene Style

Most relationships fail because those involved in them mistakenly believe love is all they need.  Marriages don't survive on love alone - they survive because that love allows for the couple in the marriage to become more than the sum of their parts.  Different marriages judge that sum by different measures - some desire money, some desire possessions, others desire spiritual growth, others find a higher purpose for their marriage in the rearing of their children.  There are a millions of motivations for being married, but the most durable marriages rely on the concept of a "sum is greater than its parts" and then utilize love to realize that sum.

In the case of Cesc and Arsenal, that's where the relationship broke down.  It wasn't about the money - he's paying €1M a year to Arsenal for five years for the privilege of going to Barcelona.  It wasn't about the love - he reiterated his love for the club and its supporters even as he was introduced at Camp Nou.  It wasn't really about going home, that was just a side benefit.  Does anyone really think he would return to Barcelona if they weren't a more prestigious club than Arsenal at the moment?  It was about the sum not being greater than its parts.  In being introduced at the Camp Nou, Cesc said of his reason for the departure:

"It wasn't really the losing, it was the routine. Year after year, it was always the same story.  Fighting until the end only to see we didn't have the energy, in the semifinals, the finals, to arrive in the final sprint."

Cesc knows he's a great player.  What he was looking for in departing for Arsenal eight years ago was a chance to contribute to a world class club's already rich history.  He could have done that at Barcelona, but he chose to take his talents to London and attempt to build upon what Henry, Bergkamp, and others had already started under Arsene Wenger.  He soon found himself being the centerpiece the team was built around, both tactically and leadership-wise.  Yet season after season, he saw his own club falter in the business end of the season while his former club became one of the best club sides of all time.  He was brought in to a great club that was winning championships, was told the entire team was being (re-)built around him, and the rebuilding project had yet to bear fruit over six seasons of its implementation.  Cesc had enough of the promises of something better that went continuously

None of this makes Cesc's departure any easier - not for him, not for the club, and not its supporters.  No matter how rational the move might seem, we supporters felt he was our captain.  During a particularly challenging time in the club's history, we were looking to him to lead rather than leave.  We wanted him to recommit to the club, just as we wanted the club to recommit itself to spend the funds to build the championship team he deserved.  In some ways, we entered "counseling" last summer and agreed to work on things - compete strongly in 2010/11, win a cup or two, and perhaps we could patch things up after five years of nothing.  That clearly wasn't the case, and Wenger saw the writing on the wall.  The counseling failed, and the divorce proceeded with Wenger reluctantly granting his captain the divorce he desired.

But did it make logical sense from Cesc's perspective, or was he making a decision as emotional as the supporters' reactions to it?

The Analytical: Cesc is Justified in Leaving

Let's look at what Cesc arrived to and what he left behind, and judge his decision in the totality of the data.  As you know, I've spent much digital ink demonstrating that championship caliber teams are built upon transfers via my work in the Transfer Price Index (TPI) database.  It is that outlook I carry over in to the analysis below.

Note: All transfer figures are in 2011 TPI numbers

• Player Purchases: After spending big money on players like Dennis Bergkamp (£25.1M), Thierry Henry (£29.9M), Marc Overmars (£21.5M), and Sylvain Wiltord (£29.5M) during the championship years, Arsenal would only buy two players during the trophyless years for more than £20M - Alexander Hleb (£26M) and Theo Walcott (£27.9M).


• Squad Cost: The total squad cost (Sq£) was £252M in 2003-04, but by the end of the 2010-11 season it had been reduced to £155M (a 38% reduction). This has led Arsenal to fall from a solid third position within the Big Six (and nearly on par with Manchester United in 2nd position) in 2003-04 to a clear sixth position in squad cost by 2010-11 (click on graph below to enlarge).

• Starting XI Cost: When Fabregas arrived at the start of the 2003-2004 season, Arsenal had an average starting XI cost (£XI) of £120M.  By the time of his final season at Arsenal, the average £XI had fallen to £71.5M (a 40% reduction). Arsenal's slide in the £XI metric versus the other Big Six clubs is similar to that seen for the Sq£ metric (click on graphic to enlarge).

• Performance vs. Transfer Expectations: During the Invincibles run, Arsenal earned an astonishing 0.96 PPG above what was predicted by the m£XIR model.  That had decreased to a more pedestrian 0.38 PPG by last season, with each of the last four seasons seeing a steady erosion from 0.63 PPG over performance in 2007/08 to the 0.38 PPG experienced last season.  This suggests that Wenger's youth project that has focused on reducing squad costs and preserving performance clearly is not working, even given the reduced transfer costs of the assembled team.  Especially troubling to Cesc must have been the championship caliber performances over the first half of the last two seasons (0.69 PPG in 2009-10, 0.53 PPG in 2010-11) that was followed up with poor second halves both years (regression to a season long average of 0.50 and 0.38 PPG, respectively).


• Trophies:  In Cesc's first three seasons with Arsenal, the club won the Premiership (2004), the FA Cup (2005), and made it to the Champions League final in 2006 where they lost to Barcelona.  After that run, they featured in two League Cup Finals (2007, 2011), and were otherwise knocked out in semi-final or earlier rounds of every other competition in the five years.


• Premier League Table: After finishing first in 2003-04 and second a year later, Arsenal averaged a table position of 3.67 and never finished higher than third in the final six years Cesc was at the club.

Conclusions

It's clear that while Arsene's management of the team finances has prevented the club from going into debt like other clubs, it has also put a glass ceiling on the club's table position and trophy case.  Cesc's observation relating to "the routine" of late season failure was spot on.  Frustrated with a lack of investment and results that were progressively worse, especially when he gave the club one final chance in 2010-11, he decided it was time to end the relationship.  I can't blame him for doing so - six years of rebuilding is certainly long enough to judge a team and its level of commitment to its world class captain.

We Gooners can only hope that Arsene and the club take the lessons from the divorce and apply them to making the club better - invest the funds wisely, and sign a big name player or two.  Much like the well wishes one might have for an ex that ended a relationship amicably, I hope that Cesc also gains from this breakup.  He certainly seems to have made a tough decision, and faces an even tougher task of breaking in to Barcelona's crowded starting XI.  I just hope his continued development doesn't come at our expense in Champions League - if we even make it that far in the next few seasons.

One of my Twitter followers, who is an LFC fan, made the following observation regarding how Fernando Torres' time at Anfield and his departure played out in the press and wider public.  There is some coarse language in the quote, but I've chosen to preserve it to communicate the emotion.

"It's really weird, but I always say that Torres with LFC was that partner who everyone around you said "how the hell did you land him/her?", making the suggestion that the person was too good for us. Then the papers would continually link Torres away from us trying to fuck it up, and fans kept saying to themselves "it's not true, it's not true". Then, when we least expected it, Torres requested to leave for that one club everyone kept linking him to, but that we all fucking hated with a passion. I'll be honest, fans were prepared for Torres to leave, but the surrounding circumstances (timing, destination, hours after we brought in Suarez, team was winning, etc.) was just the perfect storm in the creation of the shit sandwich that was."

Cesc's departure was more drawn out and less sudden.  Perhaps that made it worse than Torres' move to Chelsea, perhaps better given we Gunners won't be seeing Cesc winning games on a weekly basis at a league rival.  What does sting more about Cesc's departure is that no one ever questioned how we got him.  He came in to a team that was just embarking on its most successful season of league football in the history of England's top flight.  We got him on the cheap, and he represented the finest example of Wenger's forthcoming youth policy.  He was the embodiment of the Arsenal-of-the-future, and a team was built around him.  The reality in him leaving is that our club, at least in its current vision, has failed and the experiment is over.  We're no longer the attractive young man or woman that has others fawning all over us.  We're now that club that will be greeted with raised eyebrows when we land that "great catch" with which we have no business being seen.

How the club in general, and Wenger specifically, react to this departure over the season will say a lot.  Arsenal is facing the real possibility of rebuilding after a failed rebuilding project, and struggling to maintain their Champions League spot in seasons to come (and the important revenue and prestige that comes with it).  They may not be a selling club yet, but they certainly are in trouble.  Youth Policy 1.0 is effectively dead with Cesc's departure.  It's tombstone will read, "Consistently 4th, but highly profitable".  Where the club goes from here is any one's guess, but I can guarantee it will be a bumpier ride than in season's past.

Arsene Can Only Blame Himself, But He Can Fix It

"Ah, piss off!"

There was a time on Sunday when "King Kenny" and #PissOffWenger were trending on Twitter, demonstrating the reach of the global soccer community and the power of the Kop. Surely there are a lot of Wenger haters not aligned with Liverpool that jumped on the trend once it got going, but the phrase is symbolic of where the two clubs and their managers may be at this late point of the season. All the more fitting because of the fact that they started the season, literally, each at a different place. What a difference eight months makes.

The Match Statistics

Before diving into some thoughts on what ails my Gunners, I'll start with a statistical breakdown of each match - the first of the season at Anfield and this latest one at the Emirates. It provides some insight into what each side should have expected out of both matches, and provides some grounding in my later criticism of Wenger.

Just like this post, the tables below represent the odds of winning a match based upon a binary logistic regression (BLR) that looks at venue and differentials of shots, shots-on-goal, corners, fouls, and fantasy points for yellow and red cards. I've generated summaries of each match's statistics and the resultant odds based upon those statistics. Click on either table to enlarge it.

It wasn't just your eyes that told you Liverpool should have won the match at Anfield - the match statistics bear this out as well. Liverpool had the statistical advantage in every category - shots-on-goal, fouls, and fantasy points were in their favor, while total shots and corners were not (note: it turns out that teams want to have fewer corners and shots versus the opposition, a concept I will explain in a later post). Reina's muffing of Chamakh's shot truly was a gift of a point for the Gunners. Liverpool should have come away with a full three points that day.

Fast forward eight months, and the match at the Emirates was a little more even but still in favor of the Reds again. Arsene Wenger highlighted his team's "difficulty at creating chances" at his post-match news conference. Indeed! Even though Arsenal took 60% more shots than Liverpool, the Gunners had no advantage in shots-on-goal and had 7 more corners than the Reds - all adding up to a huge knock on the Gunners' chances of winning the match. All of this results in dropping Arsenal's odds of winning the match, which are only slightly raised by the two fewer yellow cards. Liverpool's oddity of being only one of three teams in the Premier League from 2005/06 through 2009/10 with a statistically insignificant constant term in their BLR model means that all of those statistical advantages added up to a 69% chance of winning the match, while Arsenal had a 34% chance of winning with such form. The odds were much closer than the first match, and perhaps a draw was warranted based on the statistics and what we all saw with our own eyes.

The bigger problem for Arsenal in the second match was their inability, yet again, to close out a match and take advantage of a lucky break. Statistically they may have been at a disadvantage for a win, but fortune broke their way late and they were a few minutes away from keeping pace with Manchester United. Instead, they walked away with what was a disappointing draw. Such collapses that snatch a loss or a draw from the jaws of victory has been all too common this season.

The Common Denominator - The Defense

What became immediately clear upon replay of the foul that enabled Dirk Kuyt's tying goal was the softness with which Lucas went down. Good for him, as drawing a foul is part of the game. What's more frustrating is how Emanuel Eboue put himself in position to have a foul called. This is symptomatic of wider defensive woes this season that have cost the Gunners a total of what should have been nine additional easy points that would have them top-of-the table right now, as well as the Carling Cup. Recall the following:

• Way back in September Arsenal drew Sunderland 1-1 at the Stadium of Light after leading for nearly 80 minutes. The stoppage time equalizer from Darren Bent came literally on the last play of the match, which was set up by a poor clearance from Gael Clichy.
• In November the Gunners conceded a two goal lead in the final 40 minutes of the match. I recounted here how rare an event that was. It was Tottenham's first win at Arsenal in 17 years.
• It was Abou Diaby providing the exact response for which Newcastle United were looking when they implemented their second half kick-them-off-the-pitch strategy while down by four goals in February. Diaby's sending off began Newcastle's comeback from four goals down, which was a first in the history of the Premier League and perhaps the best example of how Arsenal's defense can both make boneheaded mistakes and crumble under pressure at the same time.
• In the Carling Cup final, it was defensive miscommunication between Laurent Koscielny and Wojciech Szczesny that led the heavily favored Gunners to lose to Birmingham City. This loss, combined with the loss against Newcastle earlier in the month, set up an awful run in March and now April that has seen the Gunners fail to capitalize on any Manchester United stumble and now find them six points adrift of the Premiership title and only two points ahead of Chelsea.

In some cases, it's been a lack of killer instinct (TottenhamSunderland, Birmingham, and Liverpool). Either way, it's clear that the defense has major holes when it comes to protecting leads. I agree with Tim at 7AM Kickoff - I think the goal keeper problem is largely solved via Szczesny. What we Gooners want to see is better play from the defense in front of him, and we want to see it next season.

The Transfer Policy Needs to Be Adapted, Arsene

I've written here and here about the impacts the squad and starting XI transfer cost can have on a team's likely finish position. I've also heaped praise on Wenger for grossly outperforming such a model - averaging a third place finish over the last six seasons when his transfer expenditures suggest he should finish 10th. What's also become clear over that time frame is that consistently finishing third isn't meeting the supporters' expectations.

The Swiss Ramble made an excellent post in September 2010 that provides an great summary to Arsenal's financial quandary. Their strategy of not taking on debt to finance transfers has generated tidy annual profits in the transfer market, which helps compensate for their lower commercial income when compared to Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester United. They also have match day income that is the envy of Chelsea and Liverpool, and surpassed only by Manchester United. However, they do have the third highest payroll in the Premier League, outstrip their next closest competitor (Liverpool) by £21M, and have a wage-to-turnover ratio (50%) the envy of everyone else but Manchester United. They may not be paying for transfers in the open market, but they are paying their players wages that are in line with winning championships. And that's the rub.

It's time for Arsene and the Arsenal board to admit the plan has failed. I know that they don't set out to finish third every year, have steadily earlier exits each year in Champions League, and go trophyless in FA Cup and Carling Cup. They set out to win, and they've tried to win in an anti-Chelsea manner. They've had a squad, transfer-wise, that barely maintains the league average transfer cost yet competes with the big boys every year. It also consistently fails to win a trophy. Arsenal has made some good deals (Walcott, Szczesny, Cesc, etc.) along the way, and have a few great academy players in the first team as well (Wilshere and Djourou being the brightest). Save for Djourou, none of those great deals and academy players starts between the goal and the midfield. The Gunners simply need a few more top quality defenders, and they'll have to pay to get them.

Which brings me back to the start of my post and #PissOffWenger. The man elicits such a response partly because he has been around so long, partly because he has been so successful in the past, partly because he's not English, partly because he's been in everyone else's face trying to explain that he's building a team differently, and partly because lately he's been a bit of an insufferable whiner. He may have a few legitimate gripes, but the sheer number of gaffes this season suggests there's more than bad officiating or a league conspiracy at work here. The public manner in which he has vented his frustrations during and after matches makes him seem like a sore loser, and plays right into the role within which the press want him to fit. If you're a defender looking to join a club fighting for the Premiership title, and you perceive that the manager is a bit of a complainer who seems to not be totally in touch with reality, do you take a pass on such a club? If you're Cesc Fabregas and looking at your manager's behavior and comparing it to the fun your Spanish national team squadmates are having playing for Barcelona, is their even a comparison? There's a time to get angry and harass the officials and opposite manager when officiating is biased or play is dirty. But when it seems to become your MO after each loss in the eyes of the public, you have to stop and wonder if that's the best way to build a positive atmosphere at a club expecting to compete for trophies each year.

Wenger is clearly a managerial and financial genius. Of that there is no doubt. Perhaps he needs to hear more people say it before he feels his approach vindicated. Whatever he feels, he needs to move on. He doesn't need to bust the bank and become a £300M transfer cost behemoth like Chelsea. The future of Financial Fair Play will prevent that. What he does need to do is stop having such an aversion to spending ANY money in the transfer market, and look to upgrade the defense this offseason. Finishing third with the cheapest squad to ever do so is no longer good enough. Only championships matter now.  This Arsenal team is his team - he owns it lock, stock, and barrel. It will be interesting to see if the old man can adapt his ways enough to get one more championship before he enjoys a well deserved retirement. As Tim at 7AM Kickoff said back in February,

"Wenger made this mess, and only Wenger can sort it out."

If You're Going to Trash Talk At Least Get Your Facts Straight

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts"

Daniel Patrick Moynihan

My Twitter timeline turned into a trash talk fest between Arsenal and Manchester United fans in the immediate aftermath of Arsenal's loss in the Carling Cup.  The two teams may not have been rivals for a Premier League championship for over half a decade, but the animosity from earlier clashes hasn't died down.  I've generally tried to stay above the fray because it often sounds like sore loser syndrome when one tries to defend the indefensibly poor play of their team - even if it was poor play for only a few seconds.  There is, however, a point where I reach my limit, and it is when opinions try to be passed off as facts.

I reached that point when I saw this tweet come across my timeline:

In 6yrs, Arsenal spent £107.9m on 30 players (0 Cups). United spent £123.7m on 21 Players (over 10 Cups)!

This is a patently false assertion, the expenditures listed are incorrect, and the goal really is to excuse Manchester United's position as consistently being in the Top 2 when it comes to transfer expenditures, year-in and year-out.  Let's review the actual expenditures by each team from the 05/06 season through the 10/11 season (all data is taken from the Transfer Price Index):

• Arsenal: £130.2M at time of purchase for 24 players (£167M in 2010-2011 GBP per the TPI)
• Manchester United: £196.9M at time of purchase for 24 players (£223.8M in 2010-2011 GBP per the TPI)

But that's not the real measure in disparity between what resources the two clubs have available to them.  The real difference is measured in their Sq£, which takes into account the cumulative costs of all transfers currently on the squad (like Wayne Rooney's 04/05 transfer that would cost £49.1M if executed today).  The average Sq£ (in 10/11 GBP per the TPI) for the two teams from 05/06 to 10/11 is shown below.

• Arsenal 10/11 Sq£: £140.9M
• Manchester United 10/11 Sq£: £284.1M

Over those years, Manchester United has had a more than two to one advantage in the terms of the cost of players it can put on the pitch.  Compare that to the suppossed 14% advantage that United enjoyed in the tweet, and you see that the estimates aren't even close.  As was demonstrated in this series of posts, it is that ever increasing amount expended on transfer fees that has allowed Manchester United (and to a certain degree Chelsea) to maintain their high finish position in the league.  Frankly, what Arsene Wenger has been able to do with such a meager budget - average finish of 2nd when his financial resources should have put him 6th - is nothing short of amazing.  In recent years it's become even more magical, where his 10/11 expenditures have him finishing 10th when in reality he's challenging for the Premier League title.  I'd like to see how well Alex Ferguson would do if he were actually constrained by such a budget that refuses to take on debt.

Yes, Manchester United fans should rightfully crow about their cups.  They won them, and Arsenal hasn't over the last six years.  However, no one should kid themselves that the clubs have two different expectations based upon their financial commitment in the transfer market.  To compare the two as equals is a bit absurd - whether its a Manchester United or an Arsenal fan doing the comparisons.

One could also argue that Chelsea's, Manchester United's, and Manchester City's of buying players at any cost to win championships is EXACTLY why the EPL has the highest debt load of any UEFA league and why UEFA is having to institute financial fair play rules.  But that's a discussion for another time...

About Me

Me showing the Portland Timbers stadium some Seattle Sounders FC love.

It's been nearly a month since I started this blog, and I haven't given much detail about myself except for the "Introduction" post I made. As I believe social media is about being authentic and knowing a good bit about the author's background and biases, I will attempt to give readers some insight into who I am and why I blog about soccer and statistics.

• My father was in the military, so I moved six times before I graduated from high school. I have kept up the behavior and have made three moves since then. I have lived in eight different cities, and can confidently say that the Pacific Northwest is the best place to live in the United States. This impacts my outlook on sports fandom.
  
• I currently live in the Lake City neighborhood of Seattle, and fancy myself as someone more inclined to live in a city than in the suburbs.
• I have degrees in mechanical engineering from Carnegie Mellon University (undergraduate) and Purdue University (Masters), and I am a certified Six Sigma black belt. I also have a double major in Engineering and Public Policy from Carnegie Mellon. So, yes, saying I am a nerd is an understatement.
• As to my Six Sigma background, I believe good statistical analysis at the right time can yield breakthrough insights that one might normally miss. That's why I used Arsene Wenger's name for my email address. Conversely, I believe bad statistics are like bad acid - they should neither be produced nor consumed. And yes, that was a rip off of a quote on Pearl Jam's Vitology liner notes for Spin the Black Circle.
  
• I have spent my entire professional career designing diesel engines. I completed my first six years of work at Ford designing components for these two engines, and have spent the last three years working on the design of this engine for PACCAR.
  
• I love taking public transit whenever I don't have to be at work so early that I am forced to drive my car. I average 3 days a week on the bus, and the 45 minute commute each morning and afternoon is where I get most of my reading - books, blogs, etc. - done for the day.
  
• I am a divorced father of two daughters who spend the weekends with me. This explains why my detailed analysis comes in fits and spurts over a weekend - having two young daughters means I spend many Friday and Saturday nights at home.
  
• I am a lover of live sports except baseball - it is too slow. Over my lifetime I have grown to become a fan/supporter of the following teams: San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Jordan's Chicago Bull's teams, anywhere Shaquille O'Neal has played, Detroit Red Wings, Seattle Sounders FC, and Arsenal.
• I have come to love soccer because of its beautiful simplicity, the fact that matches only last two hours (most pro sports events in the US last 3+ hours), and that the professional game in the US is so financially limited that the players are not like the spoiled brats in our other pro leagues. You can see this post for my explanation of why I am an Arsenal supporter.
• While I am a Libertarian politically (see my other blog if you're really that interested), I am more a socialist when it comes to sports. I want league competition to be interesting, and that means teams cannot be allowed to spend whatever money they want on players. I like the NFL's revenue sharing agreement, and I like the NBA's salary cap model with the Larry Bird rule that allows successful teams to stay together. Consequently, I dislike Chelsea and the NY Yankees. That being said, I like the European "association" model for soccer rather than the US "franchise" model for professional sports - the roll relegation and promotion plays encourages franchises to not stand pat and instead put their best foot forward every year.
  
• This blog, and the analysis behind it, is done in my free time. Someday, I would wish I could make enough money from such analysis to support my family. Until then, I can only post when time allows and I am not doing one of the several other activities I appreciate in my free time. Hence, I am not the most prolific blogger, but I always intend to put out above average analysis to compensate for the lack of frequent posts.

I hope this gives you some insight into "the man behind the blog". It should hopefully clarify the mindset I use in approaching the topics I cover. As the authors of Soccernomics have shown, it's high time emotion and conjecture be taken out of the world's most popular and beautiful game and instead use statistics and numbers to explain what's happening on and off the pitch.