Friday Night Links

It's been two weeks since I last posted my favorite links of the week, so yet again this week's post will be rather long.  I'd also like to update everyone on my plans for the blog this summer.

Summer Plans

Over the last seven months I had maintained a rate of about three posts per week: two posts of original material, and one that contained links to my favorite sites or a book review.  For the summer I will take a less structured approach.  My outlook is that posts will be less frequent, but of thicker content based upon what I am working on.  I already have a number of large projects on my radar, so there will be a good bit of foundational work that is laid this summer in preparation for the final third of the MLS season and the kickoff of the 2011/12 Premier League season.  These projects involve some pretty detailed and lengthy statistical analysis.  To ensure the resulting posts' quality, I must take things slowly.

Here's a summary of what I have planned this summer:

• A two part series on the impact of starting XI transfer costs on the outcome of English Premier League matches.  The first post should go live next week over at the Transfer Price Index blog, with the second post likely following about a week later.  This series takes what we learned earlier this year about the effects of squad transfer costs over the long-term and brings them back down to the individual match level. Definitely some interesting conclusions there, and you'll never guess who played the most lopsided match in Premier League history from a financial standpoint.
• An update to my M£XI and MSq£ analyses using the 2011 Transfer Price Index data.  We'll get to see how much or little the regression equations have changed, how the team and manager over/under performance rankings have changed, and which teams over/under performed in 2010/11.
• A new regression analysis using the 2011 Transfer Price Index data to show what a club's cost-per-point should be based upon their squad transfer cost.  This will allow for the identification of how efficient teams have been at earning points based upon their cost structure.
• A several part series studying the transfer habits and club results of Arsene Wenger.
• To-be-determined analyses that will result from the combination of MLS players union salary data with Climbing the Ladder's player lineup database.

As you can see, it will be a busy summer!  Stick with me, and I promise the reading material will be highly insightful if not as frequent as in the past.

My Favorite Links from the Last Two Weeks

• Adidas has a great commercial highlighting what can best be termed as soccer culture, both here in the States and around the world. 
• Auguso Neto, courtesy the Run of Play blog, has some interesting social commentary on gladiator sports, soccer, and how our world is becoming more Roman every day.
• Anyone who reads my blog knows I use the economics of soccer to tell a story.  It's no different if the clubs are in the Premier League or in MLS.  Want to know how important this weekend's derby against Vancouver is for Seattle Sounders fans?  Look to the price of a ticket to that match compared to others throughout the season.
• Chris Anderson at Soccer By The Numbers summarizes European soccer revenue.
• Speaking of Chris, can anyone help him out in explaining why Ligue 1 in France and the Erdevisie in The Netherlands seem to be so different than the other European leagues when it comes to goals per match?
• I can't help but agree with MLS Talk when they critique Sunil Gulat's excuses for not siding with the FA in sending a message to FIFA by abstaining from Sepp Blatter's re-election.
• EPL Talk asks why there aren't more team's like the Clough's Derby County and Nottingham Forest or Kenny Dalglish's Blackburn Rovers - teams that aren't glamorous and are built from the ground up.  Sadly, Dalglish's Rovers were an aberration in the Premier League era.  The genie can't go back in the bottle, and only Financial Fair Play rules can help level the playing field (although they'll never eliminate the disparity).
• The Swiss Ramble summarizes the transfer funds available to Arsene Wenger, and has a few thoughts on where the Gunners might spend that money.
• Howard Hamilton at Soccermetrics shows statistically that Arsenal was justified in winning the First Division in 1989, but a Liverpool championship could also have been justified.
• On Footy asks "Can You Win in MLS without a Big Man?"

It may be the off season in Europe, but it's a weekend full of soccer here in the US.  Our national team is in action on Saturday in group play for the CONCACAF Gold Cup (our region's national team championship).  The winner of the Gold Cup goes on to the 2013 Confederations Cup and gets the benefit of playing in World Cup 2014 stadiums a year ahed of the tournament..  My Seattle Sounders are also at home this Saturday in that derby match versus our neighbors from the north.  It will be a busy Saturday for me.  I hope your weekend is exciting, and I'll see you back here next week!

Friday Night Links

I took the second week of my three week vacation very seriously and didn't post a Friday Night Links, so this week's post will be longer than normal as it covers two weeks worth of material. Let's get to it.

New Blogs, Magazines, and Books

This week I have two new things I am reading.

• Issue 1 of The Blizzard came out on Thursday. I snapped up a copy for myself and am eagerly awaiting its electronic delivery (unfortunately, the guys had a bit of trouble with their ordering system on launch day that they're resolving now). I grabbed Issue 0 when they first published it, and loved every one of its 187 pages. If you don't know about the Blizzard, head over to their website and check it out. I love it so much that I harbor a not-so-secret desire to have an article published in their wonderful quarterly magazine at some point. A boy can dream...
• Dan Kennett turned me on to Lewis Tong's Squeezing My Skull blog last week. The blog is new and only has a few posts so far, but it has covered topics near and dear to my heart - the econometrics of soccer. Check it out and give Lewis some feedback on his efforts.

Links of the Week

• Tim at 7AM Kickoff has been killing it the last couple of weeks. He's offered up some evidence as to why Arsenal can't compete with recent champions on goals scored and conceded, showed how Arsenal's points per game fell off at the business end of the season (and ManU's did not fall nearly as much), and ultimately proves why deadlines and the need for sensationalism in the newsroom don't lead to good statistical analysis.
• Chris at Soccer By The Numbers makes the case that soccer is a Big Four sport in the US if you look at how Americans write about sports.
• Brian Phillips at the Run Of Play blog suggests we watch this weekend's Champions League final as Barca's (and Spains) run of domination is likely coming to an end.  Appreciate it while you can, people!
• While relegated clubs are trying to figure out how they're going to manage their businesses next season, Ian at TwoHundredPercent writes about the opposite problem: recently-promoted Queens Park Rangers have raised ticket prices 40% in the hopes of competing with the rich clubs of the Premier League.
• Speaking of club financials, The Swiss Ramble does a great job profiling the improving fortunes and continued challenges of Liverpool.
• In case you missed the news, here's how much each of the Premier Clubs made last year based upon global TV rights. How big of a slice did your favorite club get of the £1B pie?
• EPL Talk argues that Manchester City didn't buy their FA Cup trophy. There's some spirited discussion in the comments field, and even I got in on the act. Predictably, I came down on the side of those who argued the cup was bought.
• TwoHundredPercent has a great story about the playoff between Luton Town and Wimbledon AFC for promotion into the Football League. Wimbledon won the match, meaning they will be playing league football less than a decade after their founding. It's a testament to their supporters, players, and staff who have created something from nothing more than passion for a club that was stollen from them. Sadly, this is nothing we could experience here in the US with our single-entity, monopolized, franchised pro sports model.
• On Football has some great graphs showing the correlation between EPL club finances and their table position.
• The NY Times' Goal blog has a great recounting of Porto's magical, undefeated season.
• The Overlapping Run provides great links to an analysis suggesting the lessor known DP's are providing good bang for the buck, while a link to a SoccerLens article argues that it's time to reform soccer's rules to recognize the prowess of today's players.

It's a long weekend here in the US, which serves as our unofficial start of summer. I will enjoy the conclusion to the European soccer season like everyone else on Saturday, and then pivot to focus on the US game over the next several months. We have the middle third of our domestic league season to contend with before Europe returns to play in August, as well as the Gold Cup and a slew of friendlies featuring European clubs. It's going to be a good summer.

Next week I also return to regular posts of original statistical analysis. I'll use next week to give you some previews of what I am working on, and ease back into regular posts over that week. I've got a slate of posts planned throughout the summer, so even though the EPL is on break I will not be. Thanks for sticking around and waiting out my much needed three week break. I am convinced it will make my posts over the next several months all the better. Have a great weekend, and I will see you guys on the back side.

Friday Night Links

Here are my favorite links from the last two weeks that were soccer...

• 7AM Kickoff has some excellent commentary on how Arsenal have done amongst the Big Six this year, as well as some observations about the upcoming transfer window.
• Sounder at Heart reviews the initial release of the MLS Castrol Index, and sees some major flaws.  So far I have been unimpressed with Opta's stats as they relate to MLS.  There was much hype going in to the season regarding unprecedented access to world-leading statistics, yet all we're getting is the highly processed output with minimal transparency from Opta that prevents any independent analysis.
• Sounder at Heart proposes a +/- scoring system for MLS players based upon the shots taken when the player is on the pitch.  My previous research on the EPL indicates that shot differential actually lowers the odds of winning and instead should focus on shots-on-goal differential, but Sounder at Heart's proposal is a good start.
• The NY Times' Goal blog dives into the 2011 MLS player salary data and identifies the eleven best deals to be had.
• TwoHundredPercent's review of Lord Sugar Tackles Football indicates that the program's examination of the Premier League left much to be desired.
• TwoHundredPercent explains the various levels of ecstasy associated with cup competitions, championships, and relegation battles and attempts to quantify which is the sweetest.  Unfortunately, we Americans have no first hand knowledge of the latter given the franchised monopolies of our pro sports leagues.
• Soccer By the Numbers continues to examine where goals come from.
• Soccermetrics is developing some very interesting methods for weighting goals to identify who scores the highest value goals.
• OnFooty uses regression models to identify which of the following is more important: clean sheets, corners, or cards.
• The Over Lapping Run details what looks to be an awesome summer of soccer friendlies here in the US.
• FootieBusiness considers what "success" should look like for MLS.
• The Swiss Ramble has a great analysis of what Norwich City's impending promotion to the Premier League will mean for their finances.
• Climbing the Ladder has an interesting alternative history to the last few Champions League competitions based upon an alternative rule: only the champions from each league are admitted to the competition.
• A bad sign for Arsenal supporters who attend live matches: ticket prices are going up.

Friday Night Links

I must start off this week's links with the video below, which has been circulating for some time now but came to my attention via Paul Tomkins.  What awesome timing given the acting we saw in this week's rendition of El Calssico.



Now on to the readable content

New Books and Blogs

I have picked up The Fix: Soccer and Organized Crime by Declan Hill in preparation for business travel to Europe this coming week.  I figured two 10-hour plane rides in six days will afford a lot of time to read about a topic I've recently been diving in to.  The books been on my length Amazon wish list for some time, and I figured now was as good as any time to take the plunge.  It's 408 pages long, so I suspect I won't complete it on the trip with the other responsibilities I will have.  It's highly regarded in the soccer community, so I am curious as to what thoughts you readers may have.  Just don't spoil any surprises for me.

Links of the Week

• Given the relative violence of last weekend's MLS action it's only natural that Soccer By the Numbers investigates what's happened to all of the cards.
• OnFooty examines when cards get dealt in matches.
• FootieBusiness argues that MLS's labor peace is a good thing compared to what the NFL is experiencing and what the NBA may experience, while a fomer player and current journalist argues that such labor peace shortchanges domestic players at to the benefit of returning US internationals (HT: The Overlapping Run).
• Sticking with the business of a single entity league, Goal.com examines how much MLS is giving up by having a league-wide kit contract with Adidas rather than allowing individual teams to negotiate kit deals (HT again to The Overlapping Run)
• A few free posts from Paul Tomkins.  First, here are his and Paul Grech's thoughts on Liverpool doing so well against the rest of the Big Six.  Second, Paul makes the argument for King Kenny being the permanent manager for Liverpool.
• MLS Talk proposes not having MLS go the way of the No Fun League and allow post-goal celebrations to take place without the threat of yellow cards.
• Finally, Jamie Jackson details a UEFA commentary that the English football system needs to be more like the Dutch system if it ever wants to produce the quality of team the small Dutch nation achieves on a regular basis.

As I said, I am on my way to Europe this weekend.  I will miss my Sounders as I will be somewhere over the Atlantic Ocean when they take on Toronto FC at Qwest Field.  I am hoping to find an pub in The Netherlands that is broadcasting the Manchester United/Arsenal match.  I will be watching more for the experience, as any honest Gunner will admit we're underdogs in that match given our recent form.  Oh, to be so close to London yet so far away from being able to attend the match!

Friday Night Links

No new blogs or books this week, so let's get into my favorite links of the week:

• David Goldblatt argues that taking the politics out of soccer would kill the sport, while the NY Times Goal blog says that the recent attempted mail bombing shows how far over the line the Old Firm rivalry has gone.
• MLS Talk points out that MLS's recent proclamation that it will never institute promotion/relegation nor a single table is backwards thinking.
• Two Footed Tackle compares this year's Gunners to those of the Invincible era.
• EPL Talk asks whether or not it's time for Arsene Wenger to leave Arsenal.
• Overlapping Run recaps last week's attendance figures for MLS, and the numbers don't look good.
• Forbes has released their 2011 list of the world's most valuable soccer clubs.  I'll get around to updating my previous analysis with the 2011 data in a few weeks.
• 7AM Kickoff recaps Arsenal's latest draw, and encourages us all to enjoy the wild ending to a very weird season.
• Finally, Soccer By The Numbers examines MLS fouls and cards and sees a mixed bag.

Enjoy wherever the weekend takes you, and I will see you back here on Monday!

Friday Night Links

It's been a bit of a slow week for me in posts, but that's because I am working on a massive ten-page study with DogFace that should hopefully come out next week.  Trust me... it's worth the wait.

New Blogs and Books

A few week's back my blog and Twitter account got picked up by another Twitter account, which led to more than 100 new followers in a day.  I started checking into who was behind such a fortitous event, and it turns out it was a site called Euro Club Index (new to me, but not new overall).  After checking the site out and conversing with one of the company's managers, I can say I am a big fan of what they're doing.

These guys are after my own heart - a real time database of over 700 soccer clubs that rolls up into an overall index that is updated on a per-match basis.  A club's index score not only shows where they rank in the world of European soccer, but such scores are then used to predict match-by-match outcomes.  Euro Club Index is the product of the Dutch Infostrada Sports, and is reputable enought to be used by sites like Yahoo Eurosport UK.

While I haven't exactly found a way to get an RSS feed of their "Latest News" section, you can get the next best thing by following their Twitter feed which I linked above.  I heighly recommend checking them out, and hope they and I can bring you some unique analysis in the future.

Links of the Week

• Premier League Talk provides some observations from the second leg of the Manchester United/Chelsea UCL quarterfinal.
• TwoFootedTackle has been publishing an excellent five part series on the revival of the Cosmos all this week.  I suggest starting with the first post in the series, and then work your way through the rest of them to get educated on the most storied club in the history of US soccer.
• Premier League Talk explains why soccer is the perfect sport for an interconnected world.
• With another rough start to an MLS season, Major League Soccer Talk wonders if Thierry Henry will ever regain his form or if he is simply a broken player.
• Hats off to Real Salt Lake for putting together a top notch video ahead of their derby against the Colorado Rapids.  As much as I love my Sounders, RSL is the real deal in American soccer.  They just advanced to the finals of the CONCACAF Champions League, came within 3 points of finishing top-of-the-table last year, won the MSL Cup in 2009, and as the video suggests they are unstoppable at home - unbeaten in 27 regular season home matches and 18 MLS games overall with their win over Colorado.
• In a preview of this weekend's Arsenal/Liverpool match, 7AM Kickoff shows just how resurgent Liverpool has been under King Kenny.
• Will RSL's Jason Kreis be the first American MLS coach to make the jump to a major European team?
• Sounder at Heart encourages us to think of DP's as sunk costs.  I guess we Sounders fans have a lot of practice thinking of DP's as costs - sunk or otherwise.
• The Run of Play has a great piece on the Timbers first home match, and how it exemplifies the urbanization of MLS (like many other leagues).  Forget soccer moms - MLS needs to focus on soccer urbanites.  This was only reinforced last night by watching the roucous crowd celebrate the Timbers' 4-2 win.
• Finally, Chris at Soccer by the Numbers explores which teams not only generate leverage, but which teams also translate it into victories.  Surprise - my Gunners are near the top of the list!

This weekend's match against Liverpool reminds me how fast this season has flown by.  It was nearly eight months ago when I was in the George and Dragon watching the kick off to the season with a packed house that included the friend that got me into soccer in the first place.  It reminds me to enjoy the final seven weeks of this season.  I hope you have a weekend filled with fun. I'll see you on Monday.

Friday Night Links

Another week has flown by, and not without a few mistakes along the way.  Herewith is your weekly dose of my favorite links.

New Books and Blogs

This week I started working through Power Pivot for the Data Analyst.  I recently bought Excel 2010, and it has a free download called PowerPivot.  I picked up the book at the suggestion of college friend and Excel program manager Diego Oppenheimer.  Diego's been able to build some pretty cool PowerPivot tables based upon World Cup historical data that he then used during last year's tournament. It effectively rendered ESPN's historical statistical commentary useless - why listen to them when you can have all the same data at your your fingertips at a moment's notice?

PowerPivot is a great tool for the lay statistician as it allows for huge tables to be constructed from freely available data on the internet, and then run multiple pivot tables pulling from each PowerPivot table.  PowerPivot also greatly improves the embedded calculations functionality within pivot tables.  Think of it as a much friendlier version of Access, or Excel's normal pivot table functions on crack.  I plan on using this functionality to complete a few analyses in the coming months on several large but unlinked MLS databases.  I'll keep you posted as to key insights from the book, but if you are a lay statistician and have a copy of Excel 2010 I highly suggest you download PowerPivot and get a copy of the book.

Favorite Links of the Week

• TwoHundredPercent has a great post on what's going on at Aston Villa as the club battles relegation.  I highlighted the club a number of times when it came to my series of MSq£ and M£XI posts, specifically when it came to expectations related to the manager.  TwoHundredPercent does the same, and suggests that the club get through this relegation battle and then look to sack Houllier.
• MLS Talk takes on the disturbing officiating of Baldomero Toledo.  MLS fans have known for a long time that poor officiating is a hallmark of the league, but this guy takes the cake.
• Leander Schaerlaeckens at ESPN.com sits down with Thierry Henry and understands just how committed he is to making the Red Bulls an outstanding organization.  Could there be any bigger difference between Henry's commitment and that of David Beckham in LA?  I for one can't wait to see Henry and the Red Bulls come to Seattle in June.
• TwoHundredPercent takes a look at the latest TV deal for the Football League, and it appears it is a step backwards in terms of revenue.
• EPL Talk makes an observation after Tottenham Hotspur's demolition at the hands of Real Madrid - are Spurs just like England?
• Forget the name game - Climbing the Ladder's latest post on MLS's website details just how hot of a start the Colorado Rapids have had, and what Real Salt Lake's appearance in the CONCACAF Champions League final means for Andy Williams.
• While I was no Blaise Nkufo fan, his departure has left a hole.  Sounder At Heart explains how the Sounders are attempting to fill that hole.
• TwoHundredPercent (are you sensing what my favorite blog was this week?) details why they like the Bundesliga more than the English Premier League.  Has the EPL's time passed?
• Paul Tomkins, no Roy Hodgson fan, argues that Graeme Souness was actually worse.
• SoccerAmerica, via Socceronomist, rates MLS's DP's to date.
• Soccermetrics looks at what UEFA Champions League might look like if proportional allocation were used to determine participation.
• OnFooty has an outstanding post that uses a few statistics to show when fans should start freaking out about their team's poor early season form.  If I am understanding the numbers correctly, we Sounders fans have about two more games before our concern is legitimized.
• The NYTime's Goal blog argues that the NY Red Bulls have run out of excuses for not realizing any success with their recent acquisition of Dwayne DeRosario.
• Logistic regression or not, 7AM Kickoff puts the numbers behind every Gooner's gut feeling that Arsene's great defensive rebuilding project hasn't translated to results on the pitch.

That's all the links that will fit in this week's installment.  My Sounders are looking to FINALLY get their first win of the season after another impressive offensive performance last week.  Now if the defense could get a clean sheet, we'd be on a roll!  My Gunners cling to the faintest of hope, although I won't be watching that game live as it is on at 5:30 AM here on the Left Coast.  Enjoy whatever you are up to this weekend, and I'll see you on Monday!

Friday Night Links

No new books or blogs this week, so here's your April Fools Day edition of my favorite links.

• Sometimes it's not always about the money a player can earn, but more about location, location, location.  Or so says Soccer By The Numbers.
• After what some might see as a depressing series of posts on how pay-as-you-play disproportionately impacts the EPL table, it's nice to see a club like Wolves' steadily building their club without the debt.  Read Swiss Ramble's review of their finances to see how it's done.
• TwoHundredPercent asks whether or not the idea of a "Team Great Britain" should be entertained for the 2012 London Olympics.
• Perhaps a "Team Great Britain" would make the English fall back in love with their soccer team.  TwoFootedTackle chronicles a compelling narrative as to why the nation has fallen out of love with the Three Lions.
• The Seattle Sounders will be hosting Manchester United in a friendly this summer.  In a stroke of marketing genius, the Sounders are making a three ticket package available for early purchase that includes tickets to ManU and two MLS matches.  This is allowing them to open up capacity at Qwest Field for all three matches, and would certainly lead to a single game attendance record for a regular season MLS match.
• Our national team did reasonably well against Argentina last weekend.  But how's this for the opportunity of a lifetime - Red Bull academy players got to train with the Argentines, including Messi.
• StatDNA is plugging along in their breakdown of the Brazilian and English league data that they're making available via their soccer analytics competition.  Not content to let the competitors do all the work, they're publishing some very good individual player analysis including a series of posts on quantifying shot quality.
• Soccermetrics makes a compelling case that a CONCACAF/CONMEBOL merger would provide the best distribution in team quality of any confederation in the world.
• 7AM Kickoff has the statistics to make the argument that Arsenal may better off developing Szczesny as their primary goal keeper rather than blow huge sums of transfer money on Reina.  Meanwhile, Arsenal's ability to finish in the top four but not win titles may come down to their defense being unable to finish in the Top 2.
• After a gangbuster start to the season's attendance figures, MLS settled back down to earth in week 2 according to Overlapping Run.
• Finally, file this one under "lies, damn lies, and statistics."  OnFooty shows why asseritions that MLS is ready to pass the NHL to become the "4th most popular league in North America" are wrong.

We're now into one of the two times of year I love - wall-to-wall domestic and EPL soccer.  My Gunners are limping into these final games with an outside, albeit flickering, shot at a title.  I'm not confident about this weekend's match, and not just because of the opposition.  We've drawn Phil Dowd as our ref.  Readers know how much I love him.  My Sounders head to California to play San Jose, hoping to improve their form that has delivered one point out of nine to start the season.  It may be looking a bit long for my two teams right now, but I wouldn't have it any other way.

Enjoy the resumption of league soccer in Europe, and I'll see you on Monday!

Friday Night Links

Here's your weekly dose of my favorite links, with a slight change in format.

New Blogs, Magazines and Books


Starting this week I will be highlighting my favorite new blogs, magazines, newspapers and other great soccer writing that I've found.  They're good enough to go into my RSS feed, pay for a subscription, or pay for a copy of the book.  They may not be new to the writing world at large, but they're new to me as I've just now stumbled upon them.  I can't promise new finds every week (the limits of my RSS feed and reading time constrain me), but when I do make new finds I will post them here.

• The Blizzard: If you enjoy the format of The Atlantic (sorry EPL Talk, I am a lifelong subscriber and can't help ripping you off) and the quality of writing you find at the Guardian, The Tomkins Times, or Zonal Marking this magazine is for you.  It's going to be released on a quarterly basis, and clock in between 150 to 200 pages.  It's like a fine drink - enjoyed slowly over an extended period of time as opposed to the rushed consumption of a blog.  Issue 0 is out now, and if you enjoy it Issue 1 will be coming out this summer.  Pay your three quid or more (it's a pay-what-you-like plan), and judge the content for yourself.
• Overlapping Run: I've been reading content from this blog when its Take Me Out To The Ballgame series of posts would show up on the MLS Talk blog.  It seems now that the author has brought those posts back to his blog exclusively, and will keep all content exclusive to his site.  Great MLS attendance analysis, great comparisons between the leagues, and great quick posts.  A must have for the US soccer fan.

Favorite Links of the Week

• TwoHundredPercent makes the case for England going back to stadiums that have a significant portion of standing room terraces.  As someone who stands for a full 90 minutes every Sounders match, the concept of sitting at all during a match is totally foreign to me but I do get understand the concepts embodied in the Taylor Report. My politics would have me leaning in the diretion of TwoHundredPercent's analysis, which is to say that much of the recommendation for moving English stadia to all-seaters in the top divisions of the game was more about money and less about safety (especially nowadays).
• On Footy analyzes the potential impact of the Sounders partnering with Groupon to sell a few remaining seats for this Friday's match.  I get the feeling that the honeymoon phase the city has with our team is over, especially after another potentially slow start.  We'll have to see how attendance does when we get into the Saturday/Sunday schedule in the coming weeks, but the fact that the team is having trouble selling out the stadium on a Friday night indicates that the casual fans may be falling by the wayside.
• Speaking of attendance, OverLapping Run looks at First Kick's attendance figures and MLS fans will like what they see.
• The NY Times' Goal blog notes that the NY Red Bulls want to "play the game the right way", while Socceronomist notes that Real Salt Lake want to play like Barcelona.  What's wrong with just playing American soccer?  What's with all the Europhilia?
• Climbing the Ladder considers what NFL history would look like if they had employed promotion and relegation starting with the AFL/NFL merger.  Quite an interesting analysis.
• 7AM Kickoff confirms and denies your worst suspicions regarding Arsenal player statistics.
• John Terry returned to England's captaincy in preparation for this weekend's match with Wales.  TwoFootedTackle questions what a national team captain actually brings to the table, while Narrow The Angle asks what kind of example Fabio Capello's actions have set?
• The Goal blog has great coverage of Charlie Davies' awesome comeback last weekend.  The US Men's National Team missed Davies at last year's World Cup, and his path back after such an awful accident has been a long and hard road.  Here's hoping he can maintain the great form he showed last weekend.
• 5 Added Minutes looks at which of the top teams in the EPL respond the best to pressure when kickoffs are not aligned throughout the weekend.  The £1M question: is it statistically significant?

Enjoy the soccer-filled weekend!  I'll be watching my Sounders live on Friday night, and will try to squeeze in the US Men's National Team match on Saturday afternoon before I go out to dinner.  See you on the backside...

Friday Night Links

After several weeks off, Friday Night Links comes back with my favorite links from the last three weeks.

First, I must highlight a new soccer analytics aggregator of which I am a contributor.  It's called Soccer Analysts, and contains material from some of my favorite blogs.  I am honored to be a contributor, and I recommend you add it to your RSS feed.

And now, your weekly links:

• Run of Play has a great thought exercise on whether the UEFA Financial Fair Play rules will actually level the playing field or simply freeze the stratified nature of the Premier League.
• TwoFootedTackle.com wonders if we're all taking soccer a bit too seriously and ruining the game.  I can't help but feel I might fall into the category of the recent fan who is ruining a very old game.
• MLS Talk lays out their expectations for the upcoming season.  My Sounders are a consistent 3/4 finisher in the West, meaning they would have a shot at the first round bye in this year's playoffs.
• TwoFootedTackle talks about the appeal of MLS in *gasp* the UK.  The future of the league may be bright if its talent can continue to grow. 
• Tim at 7AM Kickoff warns against a "blow the team up" mentality with Arsenal, and instead suggests that it's Wenger's mess to clean up.  Conversely, Paul Tomkins is envious of Arsenal's consistent qualification for Europe.
• Chris from Soccer By the Numbers gets an awesome guest post at the NY Times' Goal blog on how MLS statistically compares to European leagues.
• 7AM Kickoff lists the percentage of games played by each Arsenal player over the last several seasons, highlighting one of the key components of the trophyless era: injuries.  I'd be interested to see how Arsenal's injury rate compares to other teams.
• The Swiss Ramble has a great post about why the growth in Premier League revenue may be slowing, and how this might impact clubs during the Financial Fair Play era.
• Soccer By The Numbers highlights the value (or deficit) of a red card.  The short story: it equals home pitch advantage.  Read the post to get even more insights.

I will conclude by saying "what a difference three weeks makes!"  My Gunners were riding high off a win over Barcelona.  Since then they have bowed out of three competitions and are limping into the final 10 games.  It starts this weekend against West Bromwich Albion.  Here's hoping Arsene Wenger can do the near impossible, and win the league with a starting XI cost (in terms of transfer fees) less than the league average.

The beginning of the MLS season didn't go any better for my Sounders, with a loss to the Los Angeles Galaxy coming on Tuesday night.  It's off to New York this weekend to play Theirry Henry and the Red Bulls.  Nothing like stacking the start of the season with the best competition the league has to offer!

Friday Night Links

Here's your Carling Cup edition of my favorite links from the past week:

• The Run of Play has a perfect piece that any soccer fan can relate to, especially bloggers who consume copious amounts of soccer information in their few spare hours.  I can totally relate to Alan Jacobs' inability to sleep in due to a work and blogging life that also requires me to be up at 5 AM every morning.
• Sounder at Heart provides their take on the new MLS playoff format, and why the same flaws from previous years still exist.  You can compare their observations to my own via my three part series on the MLS playoffs' failures and my own reaction to the league's 2011 edition.
• Soccer by the Numbers had two great posts in the last week.  The first was a re-cap of a study proving that a team's improvement after sacking a manager in the Dutch Eredivisie is not statistically significant when comparing it to a teams' performance when they just stick with the manager.  This provides great food for thought when it comes to the professional coaching carousel at the top flights of European soccer.  The second in a study that shows zero correlation between an increased number of corner kicks and an increased number of goals across the Big Four European leagues.
• Finally TwoHundredPercent has an interesting post related to the British parliament hearings on the financial state of English soccer.  For those of us in the States, it's a bit odd that a national governing body would be conducting such a review about the financial state of what is nominally a private enterprise based around recreational activity.  Nonetheless, the testimony as summarized in the post provides some interesting insight into the competing views of how the English game should be governed and financially regulated.

With that, have a great soccer viewing weekend.  As a Gooner, all I care about is Sunday's Carling Cup final.  I've only been an Arsenal fan for two years now, but I know enough longtime fans to know how important this match is.  It may be the least prestigious of the four championships for which Arsenal is competing this year, but that doesn't matter.  A cup is a cup at this point, and there is a huge sense that getting this first one will make these players better prepared to win more of them.  It's not something that I can quantify with numbers, but rather an intangible gut feeling.

C'MON YOU GUNNERS!

See you all on the other side of the weekend.

Friday Night Links

I'm sorry - I can't get enough of this scene!

I am back in the Pacific Northwest, happy as hell about being home and being a Gooner after Arsenal out-Barca'd Barca.  Time for my favorite reads from the week of travel.

• The Swiss Ramble continues his fine form, with a great post on how the heck Chelsea may be able to fit their gargantuan financial mess under the UEFA financial fair play rules.
• Taking a page from the Middle East protests, journalist Grant Wahl is waging a Twitter campaign to be president of FIFA.  Read more about his platform here.
• Fellow Tomkins' Times writer Dan Kennett takes on the huge task of identifying the biggest transfers of all time, both in the EPL and on the continent.  This post also serves as the initial disclosure of the 2010/2011 TPI numbers, which were just compiled by Graeme Riley.
• For all you Sounders fans, the 2011 US Open Cup schedule has been released.  Time to three-peat!
• Paul Tomkins writes a great piece about the hatred he has faced on a daily basis on Twitter, all for simply trying to earn a living by getting people to willfully pay for his analysis.  It's truly sad when spiteful individuals can beat up on someone so bad that they feel compelled to cut out an emerging, vital form of communication.
• Soccer By The Numbers has a link to a great study on how testosterone fuels home pitch advantage.

Alright, it's time to head off to work. It's a long weekend here in the states, where we recognize the birthdays of Abraham Lincoln and George Washington on Monday - one of the rare occurrences where my European friends are at work and we Yanks are on a Bank Holiday.  Posting will likely be non-existent, as I am spending the weekend in Portland, Oregon doing various things (even catching up with a Swedish Gooner!).

Enjoy the FA Cup weekend. For us Gunners it is a match against Leyton Orient, where we attempt to keep the dream (fantasy?) of a quadruple alive.

Friday Night Links

Greetings from frigid Mississippi!

Here's your weekly dose of my favorite soccer-related material on the web, fueled this week by fried green tomatoes and crawfish tails (yes, I ate both for the first time last night). You know what they say, when in Rome...

• This is a pretty simple post, but it does warrant a mention given the tardiness: MLS finally announced their complete schedule, and I now know when my Sounders will be playing that inferior team from the state of Oregon.  First up - a revenge match against the LA Galaxy, who embarrassed us at home last year. I've already got my tickets!  Meanwhile, Fanhouse explains why the delay in announcing the playoff format is bad news for MLS fans.
• I can't go without mentioning 7AM Kickoff, especially after Tim helped provide the data beyond my highly trafficked post on Phil Dowd's bias.  Tim comes back with another great statistical look at why RvP would be the MVP of the Premier League if he could just kick the injury bug.
• Soccer by the Numbers has had several great posts, two of which I neglected to mention last week.  The links from last week spent a good bit of time examining offensive and defensive efficiency.  Based upon the data, it appears as if the keeper really is what's holding Arsenal back.  This week, Chris took on attendance figures. I may love the EPL and it may have a wider TV audience, but clearly the Bundesliga has the best attendance figures at the stadium.
• EPL Talk makes the argument that perhaps Premier League teams should be looking to create their own TV content given the limited and cluttered broadcast/cable TV markets.
• Socceronomist highlights a study that estimates that the Big Four American sports - football, baseball, basketball, and hockey - are missing out on $370M per year of revenue by forgoing jersey sponsorship found in professional soccer.
• Having watched the exciting and heartbreaking 4-4 Arsenal/Newcastle United draw, I can completely concur with Run of Play's analysis on the psychology behind trying to recount such an event.  Why is it our recollections of such once-in-a-lifetime events never measures up to the excitement and ups-and-downs felt in the moment?
• Run of Play then followed that post with another superb piece of writing, which provides a cultural examination of the US and European soccer fan relationship. I freely admit - I fall into that Europhile category.
• Finally, a blog post near-and-dear to my heart: In Bed With Maradona's "Does My Daughter Need to Love [Soccer]"?

My Gunners are on the Deuce in the States, so I am hopeful I can find someplace to watch them even though I am in Mississippi.  Here's hoping they don't fall to the same fate as United did last week.  Get a win this week, and I think every Arsenal fan owes a Wolves supporter a beer - thanks for keeping our Invincibles' record intact, and thanks for not embarrassing us a week later.  I don't know if we could take much more after last week's debacle.

Friday Night Links

Here are my favorite stories/blog posts of the week.

• Leander Schaerlaeckens at ESPN.com has a fine piece on MLS parity and its pluses/minuses.  Readers of the blog know that I have my opinions, and Sounder at Heart had a great four part series on parity in MLS.
• 7AM Kickoff had two great posts this week.  First, an explanation of the offside rule, and how there's no way to interpret it that would allow Everton's first goal against Arsenal to stand.  Second, a response to the absolutely horrible British soccer journalism in regards to Cesc Fabregas supposedly bad attitude (warning: lots of foul language involved).
• Some good reads on the most active EPL club in the January transfer window: Here's the NY Times' take on the transactions, while The Tomkins Times provides some perspective on the Andy Carroll purchase.
• As usual, Zonal Marking is full of great breakdowns of European action.  Naturally, my favorite is their dissection of the Everton/Arsenal match.  I watched it on DVR, and couldn't immediately tell what changed tactically when Bendtner and Arshavin came on the pitch and two goals soon followed.  After reading Zonal's analysis, it all became clear.
• The Swiss Ramble continues to set the standard for economic analysis of soccer clubs.  This week, he takes on Roma.
• Speaking of The Swiss Ramble, the Roker Report has a great interview with him on UEFA Financial Fair Play rules in general, and how they may effect up-and-coming Sunderland specifically.  I think there are few people not attached to clubs that better understand this topic than the Ramble.
• Finally, a critique of the lack of January transfer window activity by Arsene Wenger by John Cross.  I don't subscribe to it (as always, "In Arsene We Trust!"), but I can understand why others do.  It's an interesting perspective, nonetheless.

As always... C'MON YOU GUNNERS! BEAT THE CARROLL-LESS TOON!

Friday Night Links

Here are some of my favorite stories from this week, in no particular order.  Have a wonderful FA Cup weekend!

• The Footiebusiness blog highlights MLS franchises' use of social media mass coupon services like Groupon.  While it provides an interesting marketing opportunity for a growing league like MLS, coupons always indicate a product that can't be sold at its original asking price.  Personally, it's great to support a club that doesn't need such gimmicks to fill its stadium.
• Soccer By the Numbers takes on the thorny question of player behavior relative to their contract and either demanding or sabotaging a transfer.
• Two Footed Tackle notes that English fans may find an unlikely ally in their quest to reform of the English game: the Conservative Party.
• In Bed With Maradona examines the effects of the commoditization of English soccer.
• Twohundredpercent looks at a secret back room deal that was on the table if England had won the right to host the 2018 World Cup.  If you not from England, and especially if you're from the US, this post provides an interesting cultural comparison between television broadcast rights and who should be able to own them.
• Major League Soccer Talk takes note of the troubles in the second tier of US soccer, both on a league and a club basis.  Contrary to popular thought, I would contend that a proper promotion/relegation regime would actually provide greater stability and increase soccer-specific stadium use in the country.  A good interplay of quality teams between the two tiers, along with increased opportunity for teams to have a shot at MLS's membership without paying the $30M to $40M franchise fee, would help grow genuine, and not Americanized, soccer in this country.

PS - C'mon you Gunners! Beat Huddersfield!

Friday Night Links

I am going to try and start a new, regular post that summarizes my favorite articles and blog posts that I came across the previous week.  They may provide a less numerical look at soccer, but I hope you find them insightful nonetheless.

• ESPN makes a case that I believe is true: Arsenal is on track to end their title drought because they finally have the Four (offensive) Horsemen they've always wanted - Walcott, Nasri, Fabregas, and van Persie.
• 7AM Kickoff makes a wonderful, and self serving, case why ManU's track record of being "The Drawables" will eventually lead to a loss and the The Invincibles record remaining intact.
• Soccer By The Numbers has some great analysis on defensive capabilities of EPL teams.  Not surprisingly, Arsenal does not rank well.
• Swiss Ramble has an in-depth and lengthy piece on the financial state of Birmingham City Football Club.
• Footiebusiness has two great posts: one on what TV time is worth in various MLS markets, and another on how MLS jersey sponsorships compare to ones found in the EPL.

Until next week...