Random Thoughts on the Upcoming MLS Season

Sorry, Colorado fans. This image won't repeat itself in 2011.

The MLS season kicks off Tuesday night (I'll be there as part of the toughest crowd in MLS), so I thought it would be appropriate to share a few random, largely non-statistical thoughts about the upcoming season.

• I don't believe Colorado will repeat as champions.  Whether it's the parity in the league, or a Real Salt Lake side coming back stronger than ever, or the fact that Colorado will be competing in the CONCACAF Champions League and will likely have the dreaded "four more games curse" come playoff time, I just think the cards are stacked against them.  No offense to Colorado fans, but I just don't think the team is good enough given the Western Conference being stacked again this year.
• Recall that in this post I quantified the relationship between table position and the percentage of points available.  That regression equation predicts that the Supporter's Shield winner should earn 68 points this year, nine more points than LA earned last year with four fewer games than this year.  I think this is a bit of a high prediction that is the result of the bias in the model due to the steady increase in the number of teams over the last few seasons, but it does provide a useful starting point.  I am going to say that it will take at least 64 points (62.7% of available points) to win the Shield.  This represents the a slightly higher-than-average percentage of points for a Shield winner (the average is around 61%), which I'll chalk up to each team getting four additional matches against the two expansion franchises this year where the top teams should be able to pick up 7 to 9 points more than they had last year.  This also accounts for LA's second highest point percentage ever last season (65.6%), and that I don't think we're going to see such a high point total again this season.
• At the opposite end, I see the projected points for the last playoff spot (10th overall) correlating to the percentage projected in this post: 44.3% or 46 points.  The regression model has been relatively accurate in the lower places, so I am confident in using its predicted number.
• Seattle fans better prepare themselves for a disappointing season.  I am such a fan, but I am forcing myself to be a realist.  For all the talk of this season being make or break for the Sounders, I don't think they've done enough to compete for an MLS Cup - so significant additions and some pretty substantial losses in Nyassi amongst others.  Add in yet another CCL run if they get past the play-in stage again, and the annual deep run in the US Open Cup, and I think they don't have enough gas left come playoff time.  If that is the case, it will be interesting to see what off season moves, besides the retirement of Keller and Nkufo, are made and how the fans react to it.  Seattle is no longer the cool new kid on the block with minimal expectations, and it will be interesting to see how the team and fans react if the high pressure expectations aren't met.
• The same might be said of the Galaxy.  Unlike last year, they're automatically into the group stage of the CCL.  This gives them six more matches than every other MLS team other than Colorado (and perhaps Seattle and Dallas), and all of those games are in the second half of the season.  Throw in a few more games from the US Open Cup, and LA begins to build a resume that includes a much greater number of games than their likely first or second round opposition in the MLS Cup playoffs.
• I am very excited for the addition of the Vancouver and Portland teams, but I get the feeling that Vancouver is the red-headed stepchild of the three teams in the Northwest .  It seems that the Seattle-Portland rivalry is the most intense of the three.  The speed with which the recent Sounders/Timbers friendly and the regular season match at Qwest Field sold out, while the Sounders and Whitecaps struggled to fill their Cascadia Summit match, speaks volumes as to where the intensity lies in the Cascadia Cup.  Beyond the rivalry on the pitch, Seattle and Portland generally dislike each other in every other aspect as well.  The whole Cascadia Cup rivalry will be great, but I suspect it will be the most intense between Portland and Seattle.
• In the East, it will be interesting to watch how Philadelphia and New York perform.  New York's second year of their two key DP's - Thierry Henry and Rafael Marquez - are expected to deliver with outstanding young talent like Juan Agudelo surrounding them.  Last season was one where adjustment was expected and tolerated, but not this season.  In Philly, this was a team that had a respectable 35 goals scored - it doesn't sound like a lot but it does represent the 10th highest total in 2010.  Get a few more goals this year (especially from an outstanding Le Toux), let in fewer than the 49 they let in last year (especially on the road), and a 10th place finish and qualification for the playoffs isn't impossible.
• Finally, it will be interesting to watch how the DC United rebound from their worst season ever - 22 points/-26 GD, futility only surpassed the last six seasons by New York in 2009 and Real Salt Lake's first season in 2005.  Beyond the quality of play on the pitch, they need to get a soccer-specific stadium built in the next few years or risk being permanently relegated to the lower half of the league in terms of public perception.  Past glory won't do, and DC United's leadership knows this.

It'll be interesting to see how things play out.  There are so many stories at the outset of this season - those are only the few I was able to write about.  I'll check back in on a quarterly basis to show which teams are under and over performing historical expectations.  It's going to be a fun season.  Enjoy it!

The impact of the DP on MLS Playoffs

Get your team a DP if you want the best chance at this hardware.

In previous posts I have shown how the designated player (DP) in MLS is driving up league payrolls, and how team payroll has zero correlation to how you finish in the MLS regular season table. As I mentioned in the payroll/table post, there are many reasons for the lack of correlation. One of the more prominent ones is the roll of the playoffs, with the logical question being:

• If team payroll is being pushed by teams with DP's, do teams with DP's at least have a better chance at winning the MLS cup?

The Data

To determine if there is an effect from the DP, I must answer the two following questions:

1. Is there a statistically significant greater proportion of teams with a DP that qualify for the MLS Cup playoffs?
2. Once in the playoffs, do teams with a DP win more of the first round series?

Admittedly, the statistics that will be calculated here will be a bit limited as the DP has only been in place for three MLS seasons. This means there will be three proportions for two data sets for each of the two questions.

To create the data to answer the questions, I must create proportions based upon teams with and without DP's. Figure 1 shows such proportions for each season. Note that the denominators in each proportion change as teams were added to the league each of the years, and the number of teams taking advantage of the DP rule has increased over time. The two data sets test as normal, so two sample t-tests can be used to evaluate the statistics.

Figure 1: Proportion of teams in playoffs by team type

For the purposes of this analysis, teams with DP's were identified based upon those listed in the Wikipedia article on the topic. Compiled data can be found here.

Getting into the playoffs

When a two sample t-test is performed on this data, it becomes clear that teams with a DP have a distinct advantage in qualifying for the MLS Cup playoffs. See Figure 2 for the results of the test.

Figure 2: Results of two sample t-test of teams with and without DP

The p-value of 0.008 indicates that their is a low risk of incorrectly concluding that teams with DP's qualify in a statistically significantly greater proportion for the playoffs than teams without DP's. In fact, the estimated gap is 41%, with the lower 95% confidence of that gap being nearly 21%. The DP may not be causing this directly - perhaps having a DP is a sign of a club that has a higher overall commitment to quality soccer than those who don't. Nevertheless, having or not having a DP on a team is a good indicator of a club's chances for the postseason.

It should then come as no surprise then that the first team to qualify for the playoffs in their inaugural season in nearly a decade - Seattle Sounders FC - had a designated player on their team in 2009.

Making the conference finals

The statistics are even bleaker for non-DP teams once the playoffs start. From 2007-2009, 83% of the teams who have made it through to the second round of the playoffs have had a DP on them. The only team to win a first round series without a DP was Real Salt Lake in 2008 and 2009, with their run in 2009 leading to an MLS Cup trophy by upsetting the team with the ultimate DP - the LA Galaxy and David Beckham. Until that point, MLS Cups had been contested between two teams that each had a DP.

Conclusions

While spending on the DP and other players varies wildly from club to club, the impact of the DP cannot be underestimated. Whether it is an outsized impact on the pitch, or that they represent an increased level of commitment to the entire team by the ownership, having a DP on one's team goes a long way to predicting postseason qualification and performance. The Philadelphia Union do not have a DP, and thus will likely not repeat Seattle's performance in qualifying for the postseason in their expansion year. The Vancouver Whitecaps and Portland Timbers should heed the numbers, and look to spend a modest amount of money on a DP in their first season in MLS in 2011.

It will also be interesting to watch how the addition of a second and third DP to teams will impact the results of playoff qualification and first round outcomes. This will surely be a topic I revisit at the conclusion of each season.