Random Thoughts on the Upcoming MLS Season

Sorry, Colorado fans. This image won't repeat itself in 2011.

The MLS season kicks off Tuesday night (I'll be there as part of the toughest crowd in MLS), so I thought it would be appropriate to share a few random, largely non-statistical thoughts about the upcoming season.

• I don't believe Colorado will repeat as champions.  Whether it's the parity in the league, or a Real Salt Lake side coming back stronger than ever, or the fact that Colorado will be competing in the CONCACAF Champions League and will likely have the dreaded "four more games curse" come playoff time, I just think the cards are stacked against them.  No offense to Colorado fans, but I just don't think the team is good enough given the Western Conference being stacked again this year.
• Recall that in this post I quantified the relationship between table position and the percentage of points available.  That regression equation predicts that the Supporter's Shield winner should earn 68 points this year, nine more points than LA earned last year with four fewer games than this year.  I think this is a bit of a high prediction that is the result of the bias in the model due to the steady increase in the number of teams over the last few seasons, but it does provide a useful starting point.  I am going to say that it will take at least 64 points (62.7% of available points) to win the Shield.  This represents the a slightly higher-than-average percentage of points for a Shield winner (the average is around 61%), which I'll chalk up to each team getting four additional matches against the two expansion franchises this year where the top teams should be able to pick up 7 to 9 points more than they had last year.  This also accounts for LA's second highest point percentage ever last season (65.6%), and that I don't think we're going to see such a high point total again this season.
• At the opposite end, I see the projected points for the last playoff spot (10th overall) correlating to the percentage projected in this post: 44.3% or 46 points.  The regression model has been relatively accurate in the lower places, so I am confident in using its predicted number.
• Seattle fans better prepare themselves for a disappointing season.  I am such a fan, but I am forcing myself to be a realist.  For all the talk of this season being make or break for the Sounders, I don't think they've done enough to compete for an MLS Cup - so significant additions and some pretty substantial losses in Nyassi amongst others.  Add in yet another CCL run if they get past the play-in stage again, and the annual deep run in the US Open Cup, and I think they don't have enough gas left come playoff time.  If that is the case, it will be interesting to see what off season moves, besides the retirement of Keller and Nkufo, are made and how the fans react to it.  Seattle is no longer the cool new kid on the block with minimal expectations, and it will be interesting to see how the team and fans react if the high pressure expectations aren't met.
• The same might be said of the Galaxy.  Unlike last year, they're automatically into the group stage of the CCL.  This gives them six more matches than every other MLS team other than Colorado (and perhaps Seattle and Dallas), and all of those games are in the second half of the season.  Throw in a few more games from the US Open Cup, and LA begins to build a resume that includes a much greater number of games than their likely first or second round opposition in the MLS Cup playoffs.
• I am very excited for the addition of the Vancouver and Portland teams, but I get the feeling that Vancouver is the red-headed stepchild of the three teams in the Northwest .  It seems that the Seattle-Portland rivalry is the most intense of the three.  The speed with which the recent Sounders/Timbers friendly and the regular season match at Qwest Field sold out, while the Sounders and Whitecaps struggled to fill their Cascadia Summit match, speaks volumes as to where the intensity lies in the Cascadia Cup.  Beyond the rivalry on the pitch, Seattle and Portland generally dislike each other in every other aspect as well.  The whole Cascadia Cup rivalry will be great, but I suspect it will be the most intense between Portland and Seattle.
• In the East, it will be interesting to watch how Philadelphia and New York perform.  New York's second year of their two key DP's - Thierry Henry and Rafael Marquez - are expected to deliver with outstanding young talent like Juan Agudelo surrounding them.  Last season was one where adjustment was expected and tolerated, but not this season.  In Philly, this was a team that had a respectable 35 goals scored - it doesn't sound like a lot but it does represent the 10th highest total in 2010.  Get a few more goals this year (especially from an outstanding Le Toux), let in fewer than the 49 they let in last year (especially on the road), and a 10th place finish and qualification for the playoffs isn't impossible.
• Finally, it will be interesting to watch how the DC United rebound from their worst season ever - 22 points/-26 GD, futility only surpassed the last six seasons by New York in 2009 and Real Salt Lake's first season in 2005.  Beyond the quality of play on the pitch, they need to get a soccer-specific stadium built in the next few years or risk being permanently relegated to the lower half of the league in terms of public perception.  Past glory won't do, and DC United's leadership knows this.

It'll be interesting to see how things play out.  There are so many stories at the outset of this season - those are only the few I was able to write about.  I'll check back in on a quarterly basis to show which teams are under and over performing historical expectations.  It's going to be a fun season.  Enjoy it!