Predicted Finish as of June 1, 2010 (click to enlarge)
It's been several weeks since my last post, so there's a lot of movement and catching up to do.
Galaxy Domination Continues
Since I last wrote, the Galaxy have picked up another two wins and a tie. One of those wins, a 2-0 defeat of then second ranked Columbus, was accomplished without the duo of Buddle and Donovan. Overall the team's projected goal differential and point totals have come down just a bit, but are still on pace to shatter the records in each category in the 15 year history of MLS.
The Galaxy have now played slightly over a third of there season and have yet to be defeated. They looked very good in their first game without their World Cup players. Is this team good enough to go undefeated?
Real Salt Lake is proving Championship was not a fluke
I was one of the biggest detractors of RSL's championship last season. I am not a fan of the MLS playoff system, where a team playing .500 soccer has a shot to knock off a much better team with one good game. RSL's play, as of late, may be a hint of what they were capable of all last season. Three wins in as many matches has moved them up from fifth to second in this week's standings. Let's see if this run is an aberration or signs of RSL making a push the last 2/3's of the season to prove their championship wasn't a fluke.
West Continues to Dominate
The Western Conference occupies six of the eight playoff spots. New York Red Bulls, with their -4 goal differential, have now dropped three spots since May 10th and are out of the Top 8. The competitiveness of the West is going to make it very hard for the bottom two teams, Chivas USA and Seattle Sounders FC, to make a move into the playoffs. According to Sports Club Stats, the bottom six teams each have less than a 20% chance of making the playoffs. Four out of those six clubs are from the Eastern Conference.
Seattle's Sophomore Slump Continues
The most popular franchise in the league, at least by home attendance, has had a very disappointing start to its second season. In it's last three league matches it has gone 1-2. Not even a dominating 3-0 win in a friendly against Boca Juniors could get the team in the right frame of mind, as they followed it up with a 1-0 loss to Colorado. That loss dropped their chances of qualifying for the playoffs down to 13.5%.
The team's Achilles heel? It's offense. Seattle has the third lowest goal differential at -5, ahead of only DC United and Philadelphia. They've scored one goal over that three games stretch, but only given up two goals over the same period. As my friendly soccer-crazed bartender suggests, the problem may lay in the coaching strategy. Seattle should be scoring plenty of goals with Freddy Montero and Steve Zakuani, but both seem to be blanketed all the time by opposing defenders. My bartender chalks it up to unimaginative play calling on the part of Sigi Schmid. He may be right. He may not be. I just know that the team better start producing some goals soon if it wants to even threaten for a playoff spot in its sophomore year.
Biggest Movers
Gaining ground: Real Salt Lake (+3), Colorado Rapids (+3), and New England Revolution (+3)
Losing ground: Kansas City Wizards (-5), New York Red Bulls (-3), and three teams at (-2)
Biggest Matches This Week
According to Sports Club Stats, the following matches will have the biggest impact on teams' playoff chances:
- New York Red Bulls vs. Houston Dynamo
- New York Red Bulls vs. Chivas USA
- FC Dallas vs. San Jose Earthquakes
- Chicago Fire vs. Philadelphia Union
Tomorrow I will provide an update on the Golden Boot race and where it sits versus MLS goal scorers of season's past.
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