The weight of soccer in the US is on their shoulders
Maybe I am being a bit overly dramatic. Soccer has flourished in this nation over the last 20 years without consistent success at the World Cup, and one set back here can't possibly stop that growing tide of support. It certainly can slow it, and a win would help accelerate it.
On the other hand, tomorrow's match against Algeria is that important. Win, and the team erases eight years of heartache - a time without a win at the World Cup. Win, and the team moves on to the knockout rounds, possibly as the top seed from its group. Win, and the team caps what would be considered a great 2010 World Cup group play campaign. Lose, and it is all over. Draw, and it's possible we back our way into the knock out rounds and go 12 years without a win at the World Cup. It's simple - win or fail to meet the public's expectations.
Building upon my two previous posts on the US team at this World Cup, let's see how the two nations stack up based upon the Soccernomics model.
- Algeria: 34,895,000
- United States: 309,488,000
- Algeria: $4,027
- United States: $46,381
- Algeria: 250 matches
- United States: 403 matches
The United States' nearly 10-to-1 advantage in population, 11-to-1 advantage in GDP per capita, and nearly 60% advantage in experience yields a 1.0 goal differential advatage. They'll need to maintain such an advantage to move on to the next round of play.
My personal prediction
I suspect that the Algerians will pour as much of their team into the US end of the field as they can for the first 15 minutes of the match. The US team concedes nearly 1/3 of the World Cup goals scored against it in the first 10 minutes of a match, and they have been true to form in the first two group play matches. The US team also has never won a World Cup match when their opponent scores first. These two facts combined have led to three wins in the last six World Cups. Alegeria will come hard and fierce, and the US defense will have to do what they haven't done so far in this World Cup - not allow a score before the 15 minute mark. If they do this, the US stands a good chance to win the match. If they don't, the best they can hope for is a draw.
I think the US team will surprise a lot of people in this match. Reading the few post-match interviews available after the Slovenia draw, I got the sense that the first half of that match was a wake up call to the team. Several reports indicated that the team took it upon themselves in the lockerroom to play to their full capabilities, the result of which was the flurry of the second half that should have seen the US win that match 3-2. That is in the past, but it provides a very effective motivator. These guys know what they represent, and it's more than just US players good enough to earn European league pay days.
They represent a turning point in our nation's love/hate relationship with soccer. There's something intangible out there in the US fan's psyche right now. We're tired of thuggish, spoiled, 'roided up players in our other professional sports, and we're longing for players who play for a love of the game, for national pride, and for a beauty that has been corrupted for too long by leagues and players bent on extracting a better contract or a better stadium deal. Our nation's love for the Cup and the sport, no matter what idiots like Glenn Beck and G. Gordon Liddy say, is measurable and it is growing. This game is much bigger for US supporters than making a knock out round. It's about legitimizing the love we have for our team, what they represent as sports professionals, proving the usual American soccer naysayers wrong, and showing what this game represents for those of us largely fed up with professional sports in America. I will be watching the match live, 7 AM Seattle time, and holding my breath for 90 minutes hoping for an American win.
My prediction is US 2-1, without conceding the first goal. Good luck, boys! And even though they may not be English, DON'T SHOOT UNTIL YOU SEE THE WHITES OF THEIR EYES!
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