World Cup Performance vs. Soccernomics Predictions Through Two Games

Continuing with my analysis I started after the first matches were complete, the table above reflects the average of the teams' residuals from the first two matches of group play versus the Soccernomics model. My spreadsheet used to calculate these values can be found here.

Germany's 0-1 loss to Serbia dropped it from the top position it held after its first match, and Portugal has now replaced Germany at the top of the list with their 7-0 clinic they put on against North Korea. I will single Slovenia out for unique praise later in this post. Uruguay, Paraguay, and Argentina all moved up with their performances in the second match, while the Netherlands and Ghana have maintained their positions from the first match. England, USA, and France all dropped substantially from last week as their either drew or lost in matches where they were heavily favored.

Slovenia's consistent performance versus the Soccernomics model deserves much praise. One way to measure this consistency is to look at the standard deviation of each team's performance. It's a bit straightforward right now given only two matches have been played, but will become more useful as we close out group play with the third match. The table below shows each teams' standard deviation of residuals to the Soccernomics model.


We can see teams like South Africa, South Korea, Germany, Portugal, and North Korea which experienced inconsistent results from the first to the second match exhibit the highest standard deviation in their goal differential residual. At the top of the list is Slovenia - showing virtually zero deviation in the first two matches. Slovenia is not only outperforming the Soccernomics model, but they are doing so in the most consistent manner.

Finally, we are beginning to get an idea of what the knockout round seeding will look like. The table below shows the current matchups as they stand after the second round of group play (click on the bracket to see a full view of the path to the World Cup championship match).


Only two spots (The Netherlands and Brazil) have been clinched before the third round of group play. Another three (Portugal, Argentina, and Chile) are virtual locks. That leaves 11 spots up for grabs in the final round of group play. We start with Mexico, Uruguay, Korea, and Greece battling for spots by looking for a win on Tuesday. The big Group C games come on Wednesday, which will determine which two nations - England, Slovenia, or the USA - move on. By Friday, we will be treated to Portugal vs. Brazil, Chile vs. Spain, and Switzerland vs. Honduras - all of which will impact the knockout round seeding. I suspect that the final seeding will look very different than my table above.

Enjoy this final, hard four days of group play!