That's Why They Play The Games, Part IV

Time for some revenge for 2006, boys!

They were the richest of nations, they were the poorest of nations...

A description of tomorrow's USA/Ghana knockout round match might as well begin with a twist on that classic beginning to A Tale of Two Cities. Demographically the two nations couldn't be more different. Not only does the US hold a sizable advantage in wealth, but it also holds a huge advantage in terms of population. Let's dive into the numbers to see what Soccernomics can tell us about this match.

Population

• Ghana: 23,837,000
  
• United States: 309,488,00
  

GDP per capita

• Ghana: $671
  
• United States: $46,381
  

International Experience

• Ghana: 389 matches
  
• United States: 403 matches
  

These advantages translate to a predicted 1.0 goal differential in favor of the United States. In fact, this will likely be the largest projected goal differential of any match if the first round of the knockout stages. In the Soccernomics model at World Cup 2010, a projected goal differential of 1.0 is huge. Only 15 matches in group play, or less than one third, have been projected to have a goal differential greater than or equal to 1.0. Fourteen of those matches have been played so far, with today's Switzerland/Honduras match being the fifteenth. In the 14 matches so far, the record of the teams favored by one goal or more has been:

• Wins: 9
• Draws: 4
• Loss: 1 (those plucky Slovenians over Algeria)

I don't have the statistics of how well the US and Ghana do at extra time or penalty kicks, but let's call it 50/50 so that the draws are split evenly. This means the US has at least an 11/15 chance of moving on if World Cup group play is any guide, and possibly as high as 12/15 if the Swiss meet their Soccernomics prediction and win today's match.

The one caveat to all of this is that Ghana is playing great soccer right now. As I noted in my last post, they have outplayed their opponents in group play to a greater degree than the US, but the gap is much smaller when you look at their absolute average team ratings (Ghana's 1.2 vs. US's 1.0). This should be a great match, and a great tuneup for whoever moves on to face the winner of the Uruguay/South Korea match.

There was a time late in the match on Wednesday when I thought I would never be posting a fourth installment of my series of posts. Anyone who tells you they felt differently, that somehow they hadn't given up hope in the closing minutes of that match, is either a liar or delusional about soccer. Landon Donovan's goal not only saved the US's run in the Cup, but validated what many of us believed to be true - this team is a world beater that deserves to be in the knockout rounds. Informed pundits and players around the world know this is a special team for the US, and they have got a good draw in the knockout rounds. They have accomplished goal #1, and can now pay lose and without fear. If they can beat Ghana, they have a good shot at running through to the semifinals. And if this team gets up a head of steam, they can be VERY dangerous. Just ask Spain and Brazil. I'm not saying they can win the Cup, but I am saying they can make a deep run and make the knock out rounds very interesting.

US Men's National Team, you've already made you nation proud and provided us with some of the most dramatic games of the cup. Thank you so much. Now it's all about continuing to shock the world. Let's go boys!