How good are the LA Galaxy playing right now?

It's been almost as much fun to watch, Edson.

Prior to tonight's match, the LA Galaxy are leading the league in points (16) and goal differential (8), with the goal differential being an especially-impressive two times larger than the next squad (NY Red Bulls). They are clearly playing some of the best soccer we will see at any point this season. The question is, how good are they playing right now? The regression equations I developed in a recent post, along with the recently discussed topic of confidence and prediction intervals, can help answer that question.

Points vs. Goal Differential

If the Galaxy were to maintain their current pace of scoring goals, they would end up with a 40 goal differential at the end of the season. Based upon the historical maximum goal differential from the 2005 through 2009 season (22), this is an unsustainable rate. However, the projected 40 goal differential can provide some insight into how many points they might expect to accrue by season's end.

Using the regression equation I have developed for points vs. goal differential and a 95% confidence level (i.e. accounting for 95% of the likely outcomes), the predicted range of points LA might expect to accrue with a 40 goal differential is:

• Confidence Interval (of mean): 67 to 73
• Prediction Interval (of all observations): 62 to 78

At a minimum LA would earn more points than all teams between 2005 and 2009 except for the 2005 San Jose Earthquakes (now Houston Dynamo). Keep in mind that the 2005 San Jose team earned those points over 32 matches, so if LA were to keep up its pace it could truly be called the best regular season team of the modern era.

The results from this calculation also highlight another fact about this early run by the Galaxy. Their projected point total - 80 points at season end - is way above the predicted range from the unsustainable 40 goal differential. The Galaxy are converting far more goals into wins than the average league leading team did from 2005-2009. Something will give before season's end, but this is just further evidence of how good this team is playing right now.

Finish Position vs. Goal Differential and Points

A similar prediction of the likely range of finishing positions can be made based upon the regression equations I have developed as a function of goal differential and points. Figure 1 shows the results of the analysis for the CI and PI of finishing position. The LA Galaxy are guaranteed to finish no lower than third in the league, and likely will finish close to or in the first position if they keep anywhere close to this level of play.

Figure 1: CI and PI for LA Galaxy finishing position

Conclusion

The LA Galaxy are, by the numbers, playing at the best rate we have seen any team play in recent memory. With 20% of the season completed, they will must have a huge failure within their team to not make the playoffs. More likely than not, they will finish in one of the top few spots. If Columbus and New York can maintain form (their points and goal differential are currently at the historical maximum from 2005-2009), they may press LA when they inevitably regress to the mean.

I will be at the Sounders/Galaxy match this Saturday. As a Sounders supporter, I definitely want them to win. It not only breaks a tough streak in the season for our team, but it helps to start closing that gap to LA, who has opened up a good lead in the West. If we have to lose though, I hope it is because LA keeps form in displaying some of the best MLS soccer we have seen recently. Buddle, Donovan, and the whole squad are simply playing lights out right now. A team this good is a rare thing. A soccer fan might as well enjoy such beauty while it lasts.