Thursday, March 31, 2011

New Sports Illustrated Column on Barry Bonds Trial: Has Bonds Already Won?

With the prosecution's case-in-chief nearly over, I have a new column for SI -- in it, I take a look at where things stand in the Bonds trial and what to expect going forward. Bonds should feel good about 4 of the 5 counts, but he's still very vulnerable to a conviction on Count Two. Here are excerpts from the column:

* * *

What worked for the prosecution?

1. Kathy Hoskins's believable recollection will help to prove Count Two

Kathy Hoskins, the former personal shopper of Bonds and the sister of Steve Hoskins, carefully explained how she watched Anderson inject Bonds in the navel during the 2002 season. She came across as believable, normal and someone with whom jurors could likely identify. Her memory also appeared strong, especially when she recalled specific comments purportedly made by Bonds. While prosecutors tried to link her with Steve Hoskins, whose business relationship with Bonds soured and who struggled on the stand earlier in the week, Kathy Hoskins emerged from cross examination as credible and without apparent ill-motive.

If the jury believes Kathy Hoskins with absolute certainty, it would be poised to find Bonds guilty on Count Two of the government's indictment. As explained in our previous coverage, Count Two simply requires prosecutors to prove that Bonds was injected by Anderson and that Bonds knowingly lied in 2003 when stating, under oath, that no such injection ever took place.

Then again, prosecutors were unable to corroborate Kathy Hoskins's testimony with other witnesses who could credibly claim they too saw Bonds injected by Anderson. Along those lines, some on the jury may be uncomfortable with finding Bonds guilty based on the testimony of just one witness, albeit a very believable one. They might also reason that Bonds could have simply -- to borrow a favorite word of fellow alleged perjurer Roger Clemens -- "misremembered" everything that Anderson did to him, including injections. Given that perjury requires that the defendant knowingly lied, as opposed to merely being mistaken or confused, any possibility of doubt would work to Bonds's defense.

* * *

What worked for the defense?

1. Steve Hoskins and Dr. Arthur Ting failed as witnesses for the prosecution

Though he initially seemed to possess intimate knowledge of Bonds' personal and professional life and though he portrayed Bonds as keenly interested in steroids, Steve Hoskins proved highly vulnerable under cross-examination, particularly in regards to his credibility and motivations. His rationale for secretly taping a conversation with Anderson drew intense fire, as Hoskins made the recording after Bonds had largely terminated his business relationship with him. Jurors will likely have doubts about relying on comments by Steve Hoskins to convict Bonds.

Ting proved to be the worst witness for the government, by far. For at least three reasons, Ting seemed more like a witness for the defense than for the prosecution: he emphasized that he never spoke with Bonds about steroids; he highlighted non-steroid explanations for possible changes in Bonds' body; and he adamantly denied testimony by fellow prosecution witness Steve Hoskins, who had claimed that he and Ting discussed steroids. By the end of his testimony, Ting probably left jurors with serious doubts about the government's case against Bonds and about prosecutors' wisdom in calling him to the stand.

* * *

What to expect next week?

The prosecution is nearly finished and the defense will begin its case-in-chief on Monday. Expect three major defense strategies:

1. Refute Kathy Hoskins's assertion that Anderson injected Bonds

While the government struggled to show that Bonds knowingly lied under oath about steroids, it scored a victory in Kathy Hoskins's persuasive testimony. Keep in mind, if Bonds is convicted only on Count Two, he will still be a convicted felon and still face prison time.

Expect defense attorneys to portray Kathy Hoskins as linked more closely to her brother, Steve, than she led the court to believe. The stronger she is linked to her less credible brother, the more doubt the jury may have of her testimony. While the defense has to be careful to not so fervently slander Kathy Hoskins that it backfires -- and that she is called again to the stand -- it has to address her damming testimony.

* * *
To read the rest, click here.

A First For Football In Australia - Rachel Harrigan Elected President and Chair of Capital Football Board

Source http://www.capitalfootball.com.au/site/news.php?id=1350

The Nearpost Local wishes Rachel Harrigan the all best in this very important leadership position in Football in the ACT Region.

Rachel Harrigan is well placed to know what is important to attend to going forward and it is heartening to note that the new President and Chair of the Board has made very specific reference to the most critical issue going forward - "...I see it as a time of engagement with the community and our member clubs. .."

The following is an extract from the Capital Football announcement:

"Capital Football is pleased to announce that Rachel Harrigan has been elected unopposed as the new President of the Federation, and Chair of the Board, after a board meeting held yesterday (Thursday 31st March 2011).
Ms. Harrigan has served on the board at Capital Football for eight years, the last four of which have been as Vice-President. Prior to that Ms. Harrigan also served on the board of Women’s Soccer Canberra.
At the same meeting Peter Maybury was elected unopposed to serve in the position of Deputy Chair. Mr. Maybury will also head up a new Finance Audit and Risk Management committee.
“After serving as vice-president for the past four years I feel I am ready to step up to the challenge with the full support of my colleagues,” Ms. Harrigan said.
“This is an opportunity to move forward. I see it as a time of engagement with the community and our member clubs. We will be having more consultation with our stakeholders and in particular our 43 clubs as we embark on a new era and a new strategic plan for 2012 to 2015......”

ENGLAND 2 SPAIN 1 | SPAIN MISSES QUALIFICATION FOR U-17 EURO FINALS

Bad news tonight for Spanish Football fans from the U-17 Euro front. ENGLAND defeated SPAIN 2 – 1 to take the Top spot of the Group & thus qualify for the U-17 European Finals in Serbia later this year. Said in another way, Spain misses out.



Spain U-17 /photo Giovani de Paola

England was superior & Spain managed to keep things equal up until the 55th min mark when REDMOND scored for England,

ESPN Sues Conference USA

ESPN is reporting that it has filed a lawsuit against Conference USA, accusing the conference of breach of contract. Specifically, ESPN alleges that the conference breached a 2005 agreement by failing to provide the network with an opportunity to match the $42 million television broadcast agreement that C-USA recently signed with the Fox network. ESPN is requesting either $21 million in damages, or specific performance of an alleged contract extension it asserts the parties had reached in principle prior to C-USA signing its deal with Fox. Meanwhile, C-USA denies that it breached any agreement with ESPN.

Sports Law Blog on the Rise

Over on TaxProf Blog, Paul Caron has his annual traffic rankings for law professor blogs, and Sports Law Blog is #22 among them in terms of visitors and #23 in terms of page views. His numbers also show a 9% increase in visitors to our blog, and an 8% increase in page views on our blog, from 2009 to 2010. As always, we appreciate you checking our blog out and seeing what we have to say.

FC BARCELONA | THE "SECRET" TO THEIR SUCCESS

Just some informative & interesting observations from Spanish Sports paper "Marca" that I thought would tantalize FC BARCELONA fans around the World. Did you know that Barça hasn’t gone below 50% of ball possession,  that is,  total control of the ball in a game, in the last three years? That is,  166 games were the opposition Team hasn’t been able to get the possession of the ball beyond 50% of

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Liverpool FC Coach Makes Some Very Interesting Observations About Playing the Barca Way

Sourced form http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-1365644/Kenny-Dalglish-Its-way-Barcelona-play-makes-Xavi-Messi-look-good.html

A lot of analysis of Barcelona is going on at the moment and for good reason. As the "experts" delve into this football organisation, it quickly becomes evident that it is a very elegant and socially responsible football culture. So much more than just a few extravagantly talented players. There are so many lessons to learn from Barcelona, on and off the field. All of it is directly transferable to our football environment here in the ACT.
Lets start by making the Capital Football development regime a loud echo of Barcelona's academy, then it on to Clubs, many of whom have the ordinary, socially responsible attitudes so apparent in the Barcelona Football organisation.
Barcelona's motto is "Move than A Club".  So it is. Dalglish makes that point in a very Football fashion.




It's the way Barcelona play that makes Xavi and Messi look so good

by Kenny Dalglish, Manager Liverpool FC

13th March 2011

Robin van Persie's controversial sending-off in Barcelona should not disguise the fact that the right team went through to the Champions League quarter-finals.

Barcelona, not Arsenal, deserved to be there. They had 20 shots on goal at the Nou Camp and Arsenal, unusually, had none.

You can never say for certain that a team from one era could beat another from 30 years ago but the time has come when it’s legitimate to compare Barcelona with all the legends from years gone by.

There are certain teams who will always be remembered by their generation as the best ever, to be revered down the ages — the Real Madrid team of the late Fifties and early Sixties with Puskas and Di Stefano; Brazil in 1970 orchestrated by Pele; the AC Milan of the Eighties and Nineties with the three great Dutchmen Gullit, Van Basten and Rijkaard.

Now you can add Barcelona to that list, and deservedly so. Many years from now, younger fans will listen attentively to tales of Xavi and Iniesta, who worked in tandem and never gave the ball away, or the wizard Lionel Messi, who scored 45 goals in a season before the middle of March.

Van Persie was unjustly sent off because, even if he saw the offside flag before shooting, there wasn’t enough time between the two actions to prove it was intentional. But, despite the fuss being made about it, we mustn’t lose sight of the bigger picture. Barcelona were a class apart.

Their manager, Pep Guardiola, will watch this week’s Champions League games featuring Chelsea, Manchester United, Real Madrid and Inter Milan with interest but not fear. I don’t think he minds who he gets in the quarter-final draw. But I think everyone else will be praying they avoid Barcelona.

Clearly there is a way to knock them out. Inter Milan did it under Jose Mourinho last year with a supremely disciplined performance in defending the 18-yard box. But to do that, and also score three goals in the home leg, is a very tough call.

Mourinho’s Real Madrid showed that without that discipline you can get hammered, as they were 5-0 this season. Arsenal were better than that on Tuesday night but not tight enough and they couldn’t pose a goal threat either. Barcelona’s principles are world renowned. I wouldn’t say other clubs see that and say, ‘We must copy the way they play’ but, of course, we all try to look and learn.

We have two former Barcelona coaches in our academy at Liverpool and that must tell you something.

What is interesting is that, despite the incredible individual talent at the Nou Camp — they had three nominees for World Player of the Year — the team is king.

The first-team players have been educated to play a certain way since they were kids. If you went to see the B team, I bet their style is very similar to the style we saw against Arsenal.

On top of the world: Xavi, Lionel Messi and Andres Iniesta were shortlisted for the Ballon D'Or, with the Argentine scooping the prize

Xavi and Iniesta are rightly lauded but would they look half as good if they went to another club? I think the Barcelona players look great because they play in a system where they trust everyone around them. Maybe if you took them out and stuck them somewhere else, you’d realise that individually they aren’t quite as great as you thought.

Even Messi, one of the most talented players you’ll ever see, wasn’t quite the same when he was taken outside the Barcelona comfort zone and played for Argentina in the World Cup. It is not a criticism of him, just a compliment to the methods that they use at the Nou Camp.

Whatever ability their players have, it is tutored and doctored in the right way. And they make their team-mates look better as well. ........

But irrespective of who Barcelona face, you’d fancy them now. Youngsters today should be glad they are able to watch a team who compare with anything their fathers — or grandfathers — saw in the past.

What's Happening In the Big Picture In Football Informs How We Orgainse The Local Game.

Sourced from http://www.theage.com.au/sport/a-league/revolution-at-risk-as-ffa-reaches-too-far-20100911-1563j.html

Craig Foster interviewed Breandan Schuab (PFA) toward the end of 2010. An excellent article below and proof positive that so many issues in Football are shared at every level of the game.

Craig Foster began his Blog article with these words:

"For me the A-League's trouble's have been brewing for some years. Schwab is correct in pointing back to the Crawford report. However, it should also be noted that Crawford recommended the commitment to quality playing surfaces - which has proved costly."


Brendan Schuab, Cheif Executive and General Counsel for the Professional Footballers Association

Craig Foster, former Soccerroo, SBS World Game Football Analyst, Author

Revolution at risk as FFA reaches too far
Craig Foster
September 12, 2010


Dwindling A-League crowds and static FFA dividends have clubs like the Newcastle Jets struggling to survive.

IMPORTANT questions have been raised, or exposed, about Football Federation Australia that mirror long-term concerns in the football community.

These relate to governance, strategy, decision-making, organisational culture, the relationship of the board to events, the exit or dismissal of key executives during the past year, the World Cup bid and its impact on the game locally, and the health and future, in cases such as the Newcastle Jets and of the A-League.

Seeking clarity on the state of the game, I asked Brendan Schwab, chief executive of Professional Footballers Australia, to shed some light on the key areas where the game is vulnerable. He chose to focus on two: the failure to properly implement the Crawford report, and the A-League structure and model.

''Two documents - extensively researched with government and players' money - gave FFA chairman Frank Lowy his blueprint in 2003 - the Crawford and NSL Task Force reports.

''The late Johnny Warren shaped both reports. The emotional power of football ran right through them. They were about building a football nation, knowing that the legacy will be for the children of today's football devotees. Neither report has been implemented, and in that lies the seeds of the game's discontent.

''Crawford's recommendations demanded that FFA be run by an independent yet accountable board. The A-League would be separate, run under licence from FFA by its own independent board accountable to the clubs. The two bodies would co-operate to collectively exploit the game's key commercial assets from the professional game.
''All state and territory federations would be overhauled along the same principles to build the game from the grassroots up.

''The failure of some states, most notably New South Wales, to embrace the Crawford reforms has had a profound impact. Football's community remains alienated and fragmented, especially after being branded as 'old soccer'.''

Schwab on the A-League:


''Falling A-League crowds and financial problems have many worried about the viability of a league that is the cornerstone of the game's development.


''Quality is not the issue. The playing standard has been acknowledged by many former greats as being at its highest point since the inception of the league. Nor are player payments too high. Socceroos and A-League player payments account for less than 30 per cent of the game's revenues, like cricket, ARL, AFL and rugby.


''It is also wrong to assume crowds had to dip. According to [brand analysts] Repucom, 51 per cent of football's massively growing fan base is 'avid'. Football is also a sport of the future, with the youngest fan base of Australia's major sports.

''Football is simply failing to fulfil its primary obligation - to convert football fans into participants, crowds and television audiences.

''The NSL Task Force revealed that about 2.5 million fans would support an eight to 10 team A-League. Regular TV audiences of one million on free-to-air TV were possible. Average crowds of 10,000 to 15,000 were realistic.

''It wouldn't be easy, though. The league had to be properly capitalised and positioned. The strategic location of the teams was essential. New clubs, quality players, community partnerships, effective marketing and football's unique atmosphere would then deliver the commercial revenues through fan support.

''However, rugby's one team per city model prevailed under the protection of a five-year moratorium.

''The game's heartland - western Sydney, with twice as many registered footballers than rugby league - was rejected. Whilst the value of the league's rights required two Melbourne teams (a game every week), only one was installed.


''Despite the predicted crowds and atmosphere being a strategic imperative, key clubs were allowed to commit to big stadia. Gate receipts haven't covered expenses.

''The opportunity to deliver grassroots programs such as small-sided games through the brands of the A-League clubs is being missed.

''Yet, the annual dividend has not increased since 2007, and FFA has added about $1 million to the cost base of the clubs, which were already under financial pressure. The FFA club dividend has fallen to less than 50 per cent of the salary cap, the lowest of any major sport in Australia (the AFL pays 77 per cent, the NRL 71 per cent).

''The same capital-driven approach of the old NSL, in driving expansion into North Queensland and the Gold Coast, sees both clubs possibly lasting no more than two seasons due to a lack of fan support. FFA's bill: $12 million, enough to capitalise western Sydney and increase club dividends.

''These problems have been compounded by FFA's decision to itself run the 2022 World Cup bid. Already a stretched organisation, its four mandates - the bid, the league, fielding our national teams and developing the game - have seen governance and performance suffer.

''More money is not the answer without sound strategy. A successful World Cup will only solve the game's problems if the obligation of hosting football's greatest event brings about world-class standards of governance and decision-making.''

I couldn't have said it better myself. [Craig Foster]

100 Posts Celebration

Making this entry made me reached my centennial post and I think it's the first milestone to reach in blogging. It is a feat the (I think) deserve some accolades. It took me for awhile to reach 100 posts because my blogging world had a long hiatus when we don't have any connection in the new house where we transferred.


Next in line is if I will be able to reach 500 posts and I don't know when I'm going to be there but I'm sure it won't be that long comparing to before. Now that I am active again in writing online especially that I have a part time writing gig and more to come (hopefully). I just want to thank my visitors who painstakingly visiting this blog and see you all in 500.

New Sports Illustrated Video on Eller v. NFL

I was interviewed by Maggie Gray of Sports Illustrated/CNN video to discuss a new lawsuit filed by Carl Eller, Priest Holmes and others on behalf of retired and prospective NFL players. Their core argument is that the NFL lockout and various NFL restrictions on trade, including the draft, are illegal under federal antitrust law -- an argument also made in Brady v. NFL -- but unlike current NFL players, retired and prospective players are not members of the NFLPA bargaining unit. These players believe they too will be harmed by the lockout (for instance, various health-related programs for retired NFL players are funded in part by fines imposed on current players; with no football, no fines will be levied, and retired players' programs will lose funding). In response, the NFL will likely argue that while they are not bargaining members of the NFLPA, the NFLPA nonetheless represents their interests. Here's the video:

An Indictment of the MLS Playoff Structure, Part 4: Quantifying the Impact of Game Differential on First Round Odds

In my last post I used binary logistic regression (BLR) to show the impact of various EPL match attributes on the likelihood of winning a match.  Soon after beginning the work I thought of another good use for a BLR model - identifying the factors that truly matter in predicting (as compared to retrospectively assessing) first round MLS playoff success.  Regular readers know I am no fan of MLS's playoff system that seems to buck the trend of most leagues using a top-of-the-table format to determine their champion.  I took a pass at explaining the phenomenon of teams with fewer games played winning a disproportionate share of first round series since 2003, but at the time could not prove that it was one of the few statistically significant predictors from the many identified by Climbing the Ladder (CTL).  Since then I have used CTL's lineup database to construct a BLR model of the major factors identified by CTL and isolated the statistically significant factors.  The results suggest that MLS has a lot of changes to make to continue to improve their playoff format they seem to love so much.

The Data Set and a Few Summary Statistics

I utilized CTL's lineup database to create the following statistics:

  • Difference in the number of games played
  • Overall goal difference
  • Difference in coach experience (MLS games only)
  • Difference in seeds
  • Home record difference
  • Away record difference
  • Regular season goal differential between the two teams
Here are a few interesting summary statistics regarding several of the attributes above for the 2003 through 2010 seasons:
  • Games played difference: The maximum difference came in the 2008 NY/Columbus series where the Crew played 14 more games than the Red Bulls.  This was due to the Crew playing in both the old and new format for CONCACAF Champions League (CCL).  The median differential is 2 games.
  • Overall goal difference: 2005 through 2007 saw some of the highest overall goal differentials between first round playoff participants - one series each with 22 and 23 goals, and two series with 27.  The median goal differential was 9 goals.
  • Difference in coach experience: Sigi Schmid is the king of mismatches in manager experience with the largest gap of 196 games realized when his 2008 Columbus Crew defeated the Kansas City Wizards.  The median difference is 68 matches.
  • Regular season goal differential between the two teams: The peak of regular season goal differential between two teams was witnessed in the 2006 through 2008 seasons, when an unbalanced schedule saw teams play each other up to four times during the regular season.  Chicago's 2008 first round series versus New England witnessed the largest such goal differential - 8 from four regular season games.  Chicago went on to win that first round series, while the median value for the first round series is 2. 

The Results of the BLR

After compiling the data for every first round playoff series from 2003 through 2010, a BLR was constructed to predict the likelihood of a team winning the series.  Dummy variables for each year were constructed to ensure no special causes were missed.  Terms having a p-value greater than 0.05 were successfully eliminated until only two terms remained: manager experience differential and games played differential.  All other terms - overall goal difference, difference in seeds, home record difference, away record difference, and regular season goal difference - were not significant by a mile (most p-values were equal to or greater than 0.40).

Plots of the the changing odds with various manager experience and game differentials is shown below.



The plot of manager experience differential is counter intuitive, but is born out by the statistics.  Apparently having a less experienced manager actually bodes well for a team in the first round.  Perhaps it is that long term managers have more data points in the MLS playoffs, increasing the likelihood that the random nature of the playoffs will lead to their increased number of losses.  Perhaps newer, less experienced managers can take a team by surprise, or are managing teams that do not perform well the prior season and thus align with the teams with fewer matches.  Whatever the cause, it seems that fewer games for a manager, relative to the opposition team's manager, bodes well for the team with the less experienced manager.

More interesting is the intuitive relationship between the game played differential and the likelihood of winning the first round playoff series.  The equation provides a very clear relationship between the game played differential and resultant odds.  The relationship is largely linear from -5 to 5, meaning that it's about a 7.5% change in odds for each incremental game difference.  As game differential approaches more than five matches, the incremental benefit of increased or reduced game differential is minimal.

What does this mean for the 2011 playoffs?  The most direct assessment is that MLS missed a golden opportunity to correct this imbalance by not going to a two game series in the first round of the playoffs.  I commented here how I would have liked to have seen such a re-balancing prior to MLS's announcement of the 2011 format, as well as my reaction to the announcement that the first round would be a single match while the second round will have the usual two-match series.  If history is any indication, MLS essentially gave the lower seeds a 7.5% advantage in odds of advancing to the conference final by not making them play an extra game in the opening round.

We'll see how things play out in the 2011 playoffs and will update this study once they're complete, but I am not holding out hope.  With my Sounders having one of the league's more experience managers and their desire to go deep in the US Open Cup and CCL, I think it will be another year without an MLS Cup.

Perhaps MLS really does like this parity that borders on complete unpredictability.  Allowing MLS clubs to buy championships like Chelsea is not what I want, but the fact that no prior rational metric correlates to first round playoff success suggests MLS has some major adjustments to make.  It seems as if MLS has swung the pendulum so far to the side of parity that no club's supporters know what to expect from regular to post-season, let alone year-in and year-out.  Ultimately, this holds back the professional game's success and growth in this country.

The 2011 Under 13 Girls FFA National Junior Championships - Don't Miss It!

Competition draw and ACT squad list soucred from the Capital Football website.

The FFA National Junior Championships for Under 13 Girls will be held again in Canberra in the period 18-20 April 2011 (dates inclusive). All games will be held at Hawker Enclosed.

If you can, get to some of these games. The best in Australia at age is on display. They will all play the 1-4-3-3 as required by the National Football Curriculum, and National Development Plan. Its an excellent opportunity, particularly for coaches of junior teams int eh CF competitions, to watch how the various coaches have prepared their teams and how this age group is developing within the current national development regime.

The ACT representative squad is as follows:

1. Jillian Scott (gk – Woden Valley)

2. Gabrielle Risteska (Monaro Panthers)
3. Jamie Berkeley (Woden Valley)
4. Leah Carnegie (Belnorth)
5. Amelia Turner (Woden Valley)
6. Olivia Fogarty (Woden Valley)
7. Nickoletta Flannery (Woden Valley)
8. Lorna Arkell (Radford College)
9. Samantha Roff (Radford College)
10. Sandra Hill (Woden Valley)
11. Grace Maher (Majura JSC)
12. Hayley McLachlan (Woden Valley)
13. Lorena Barbaro (Gungahlin United)
14. Georgia Fogarty (Woden Valley)
15. Iesha De Andrade (Woden Valley)
16. Alexandra Cook (gk – Majura JSC)

COACH: Colin Johnstone
MANAGER: Eddie Senatore
PHYSIOTHERAPIST: Tim McNally

The scedule of fixtures is listed below.

NATIONAL JUNIOR CHAMPIONSHIPS


Fixture List

Group A
NSW Metro
Northern NSW
South Australia
Victoria Metro
ACT

Group B
Queensland
Western Australia
NSW Country
Victoria Country
Tasmania

Day 1 – 18th April 2011

8.30am Western Australia v Tasmania

9.30am Northern NSW v VIC Metro

10.30am ACT v South Australia

11.30am NSW Country v VIC Country

12.30pm NSW Metro v Queensland

1.30pm Northern NSW v ACT

2.30pm NSW Country v Western Australia

3.30pm Queensland v Tasmania

4.30pm VIC Metro v NSW Metro

5.30pm VIC Country v South Australia



Day 2 – 19th April 2011

8.30am ACT v VIC Metro

9.30am Tasmania v NSW Country

10.30am South Australia v NSW Metro

11.30am VIC Country v Queensland

12.30pm Northern NSW v Western Australia

1.30pm VIC Metro v Tasmania

2.30pm NSW Metro v ACT

3.30pm Queensland v NSW Country

4.30pm Western Australia v VIC Country

5.30pm South Australia v Northern NSW



Day 3 – 20th April 2011

8.30am NSW Metro v Northern NSW

9.30am ACT v NSW Country

10.30am South Australia v VIC Metro

11.30am Western Australia v Queensland

12.30pm VIC Country v Tasmania

1.30pm All Stars Announcement

2.15pm All Stars v National Champions

3.15pm Presentation

REAL MADRID | SERGIO CANALES | THE SHAMAN & THE DESERT

SERGIO CANALES arrived at REAL MADRID CF at a cost of 10M€ from Racing de Santander as a 19 year old midfield promise after having a wonderful & meteoric season 2009 – 2010. Now after more than six months the youngster has had just a few games ( mostly friendlies ) with Real Madrid & many observers had dubbed this “his lost season”, a term not at all positive for a young Football professional

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

My interview for PBS Frontline on O'Bannon v. NCAA

Here's a link to a transcript of my interview with Lloyd Bergman of PBS. The transcript is admittedly long - the interview was for over an hour and we covered a TON of ground for PBS' March Madness and Money feature.

Here's an excerpt from the transcript:

PBS: How significant is this case?

McCann: It's a very significant case, particularly because it's past the motion-to-dismiss stage. A motion to dismiss is an argument by the defendant that, even if all of the facts are true, there's no viable legal claim. Well, the NCAA lost the motion to dismiss, and it's now going to trial. Normally, cases against the NCAA have not succeeded, either because of motions to dismiss or because they're settled. O'Bannon, though, seems to signal that he isn't going to settle, that he's actually going to go forward with this case, and he's going to try to win it.

And if he wins it, it would mean that retired players, including those who have been retired for a while, should be compensated for their use and image and likeness that the NCAA contracted away.


PBS: Well, you said something called the "right of publicity." What is that?

McCann: The right of publicity is that we have certain proprietary interests in our identity, that if somebody is going to try to make money off our image, our likeness, our name, that we should be compensated for that. Now, there are exceptions to that. There's a newsworthiness exception, for instance. If we're in the public news because of something we did or because we happen to be there, we're not going to be compensated. There's also an exception for parody. In other words, if we went on a television show and somebody parodied our appearance, we wouldn't be compensated for that.

But if somebody is just trying to make money off our image or likeness, we have a legal right, under state laws, to be compensated for that.


PBS: Let me put it a different way. O'Bannon, all the college athletes today, student-athletes, they all sign this form, right? And it's our understanding that this form has a clause in it that says you're signing away all your rights, basically, to the NCAA and to the school that you went to. So what's this litigation all about?

McCann: O'Bannon would argue that the Student-Athlete Statement, which, as you noted, Lowell, is required of students to sign if they want to play college sports -- students who may be 17 or 18 years old know that if they don't sign that statement, they will not be able to play sports. And if they can't play sports, they may not get their scholarship. And if they don't get their scholarship, they may not be able to afford school. So O'Bannon is saying, well, that's not really much of a choice, is it, because you're required to sign this form.

Not only does it seem as if we don't have a choice, but the form itself shouldn't have the meaning that the NCAA seems to perceive. The form means that players give up their proprietary interest while they're in college, so the NCAA can use their likeness and image while they're in college to promote the NCAA and to promote the colleges that the players are associated with.

O'Bannon is saying, even if that's OK, which he doesn't seem to concede, but even if that's OK, it shouldn't continue after I've left school, because the NCAA, as it's argued, is concerned about the exploitation of student-athletes; that if they were to be able to do their own deals while in college, there would be charlatans who exploit players and the like. But O'Bannon is saying: "I'm 39 years old. Why is it that I need to be protected by the NCAA nearly 20 years after I played college basketball? I should have a right to get paid. That form shouldn't take the effect that the NCAA seems to interpret."

* * *

PBS: Yeah. But I mean, the players who make the money, because there's a very small group of players who bring in that revenue, right?

McCann: Sure. I think you could say that the superstar player generates a disproportionate share of the fan's interest of the commercialization of sports. When O.J. Mayo plays one year [of basketball] at the University of Southern California, and he's put on the cover of the brochure, and he's highlighted, he clearly is generating revenue for the University of Southern California. This is somebody who is attracting renewed interest in a program that had not attracted a lot of interest in years prior.

I don't know if the 11th and 12th persons on the bench are generating that same value. They're clearly not. You know, the random offensive linemen on a top college football team, whom we don't know the name of, how much value is that player contributing? Well, in the sense that he's playing on a team that's doing really well, he's contributing value. But independently, how much value is he contributing? I think that's a harder call. And I think that's what is going to make compensating athletes a difficult challenge, certainly not an impossible challenge, but it's figuring out who gets what ... If it were a professional league, then we would know what they get, because there's a market for services.

* * *

PBS: But this is the only country that I know of that has sports teams associated with universities and institutions of higher learning in a billion-dollar industry, and is tied that way. I mean, this is a pretty unusual situation, isn't it?

McCann: It is, and in other countries, for instance in Europe, we don't see the same college sports system. We see a professionalization of youth sports. We see if you're a 13- or 14-year-old star basketball player, you don't have to wait until you're 19 years old and one year removed from high school to play in the NBA. You can sell your services as a teenager and make money at that point, or you can join some other kind of pro league in another part of the world.

Only in the United States do we have this very extensive and popular system of college sports that has had the effect of reducing the compensation and, in some cases, eliminating compensation for those who are playing the sports. When you couple that with age restrictions in order to enter the NFL and the NBA -- and, of course, in college sports, at least 90 percent of the revenue is generated by football and men's basketball -- then you could see a real injustice.

You have players who can't turn pro because of an age restriction. Then they have to go to college, if you will, to play maybe for a school that they have no interest [in] being a student at. Where do they go? Well, they can go to Europe if they're a basketball player, perhaps, but not many have done so. They're in a difficult situation. I think the ones who are generating so much of the wealth, the star players, are the ones who are so clearly disadvantaged by this system.

PBS: So it's an antitrust case.

McCann: It is an antitrust case, because the current system is set up in a way that boycotts players who would otherwise be commercially viable from being able to use their services. And that, arguably, makes the market less competitive.

Now, the question is, who gets sued there? Do you sue the professional sports leagues and the players' associations that have created barriers to entry? Well, that's been done in the past. The difficulty is that courts say, if the owners and the players get together and negotiate a rule, it's largely immune from federal antitrust law. And of course, you could say, well, that doesn't seem fair, because the players' association is looking out for current players. Why should they create a barrier that prevents prospective players from entering the league, because if they could enter, they're going to take jobs away from the 12th guy on the bench. That doesn't seem like a fair system. But that's how federal labor and antitrust laws are set up. Current employees can negotiate on behalf of prospective employees. It may seem fair in some contexts, but I think in professional sports it really isn't.

* * *

To read the rest, click here.

Woden Valley FC Dominates the Elaine Watson Cup Final 2011

Woden Valley (Womens) FC completed a remarkable pre-season competition on Sunday with both the PL Pathways and PL Under 18's playing against each other in the final.

The Woden Valley Club website (http://www.wvfc.asn.au/category.php?id=1) provides this commentary on the game:

"A successful weekend for both the WVFC U18s and WVFC Pathways women was completed when both teams qualified for the Elaine Watson Cup final. A shock was on the cards into the 2nd half with the U18s holding a 1 - nil lead before the Pathways girls pulled away to win 3 -1 eventually. Both teams contributed to an enjoyable final with some good football on display. "




Womens Federation Cup Final Part 1 - Ed Hollis Woden Valley Coach

This program was broadcast on 2xxfm (98.3mhz), through the Australian Community Radio Network on Tuesday, 29 March at 7:00PM.




If you didn't get to the Women's Federation Cup final at Mackellar last Saturday, you have my deepest sympathies.

This was a fantastic game, played by two teams who are well coached, were well prepared for this game and played with skill, discipline, flair, passion and total committment. It was everything you could want a game of football to be.

The two teams were Woden Valley FC (defending Womens PL premiers for 2010) v Belconnen United FC. The game concluded at the end of 90 minutes of ordinary time 0:0, then they played 30 minutes of Extra time, still 0:0. Both teams had played themselves to a standstill. A penalty shoot out followed and Belconnen's experienced players saw them win the game for Belconnen United FC.

The player of the match went to the Belocnnen GK and it was hard to argue with her performance. But I just can't let this opportunity pass without special mention of the two Belconnen centre backs, they were absolutely outstanding among two teams of players who were all giving their best. These two Belco players held it all together at the back and  this was clearly a key to the Belco Coaches game plan. Their individual and collective performance was the best I have seen in these two critical positions in the last few years of mens or womens football in the ACT PL. Both players have much to recommend them to ACTAS.

My heartfelt congratulations to all associated with both teams. It was well worth the $5 entry fee that Capital Football cheekly charged spectators. I hope they take the total entry fee contribution and buy every player in both teams new football boots and the two coaches oxygen recovery equipment!

And all this good Football at the end of the Pre-season competition. Amazing! Womens Football is just getting better and better.

There is only one thing I can recommend - rather than me write about this sensational match, listen to the Coaches talk about it. In Part 1 we begin by talking to the Coach of Woden Valley FC, Ed Hollis. In Part 2 we will speak to the Belconnen United FC Coach.


Download Podcast here:

LITHUANIA 1 SPAIN 3 | EURO 2012 GROUP I QUALIFIER RESULT

SPAIN managed to win away to LITHUANIA 1 - 3 in their EURO 2012 Group I qualifier to give them another victory, consolidate the Groups Top spot & put them nearly into the Euro Finals of next year. The match went ahead after UEFA officials & the French referee decided that the turf ( without grass ) was apt to play on & safe. Correct decision as no one from both teams were injured in a game played

Two Great Nights of Sports Law Related TV

1) Tonight at 9 p.m., PBS Frontline will air a feature on "Money and March Madness". It will primarily be about the O'Bannon v. NCAA lawsuit and will include interviews with Ed O'Bannon and Sonny Vaccaro, who last Friday delivered an outstanding keynote address at Harvard Law School's sports law symposium and who was recently the subject of a very interesting piece in the New York Times.

2) Tomorrow night at 10 p.m. HBO Real Sports will air a 1-hour feature on College Sports in America (Part I can be seen here; Part II here). Here is more info on the HBO feature:

Two long-form segments anchor the program, setting the stage for an extended roundtable panel hosted by Bryant Gumbel and featuring former University of Michigan head football coach Rich Rodriguez, outspoken college basketball commentator Billy Packer and print journalist Jason Whitlock of FoxSports.com. The group will address a host of issues relating to the NCAA and the regulation of its 1,055 member schools.

Segments include:
*The Money Trail. Every year, thousands of talented young student-athletes sign letters of intent and obtain full-ride athletic scholarships (tuition and board) from the biggest, wealthiest programs in America, effectively giving up all rights to revenue generated by their participation, including TV rights fees, merchandising and ticket sales. But with a dramatic increase in revenue from top programs and athletes’ growing awareness of their contribution, many are starting to ask if there should be financial compensation. REAL SPORTS correspondent Bernard Goldberg examines the notion of student-athletes remaining untainted amateurs while generating pro-type revenue for their schools. Are they getting a fair shake?

*Pay to Play. Should athletes at Division I programs be financially compensated? And would that curb the headline-grabbing stories of inappropriate payments and benefits? More and more standout athletes in top programs are seemingly putting their education on the back burner to focus on what’s really important – the money. Those destined for the NBA and NFL face the moral dilemma of dealing with “advisors” and “street agents” who can deliver the funds and material items they desire while in school in exchange for a promise of future reciprocation when they reach the pros. REAL SPORTS correspondent Andrea Kremer delves into the controversial and complex subject of premium college-bound athletes receiving benefits that are prohibited by the NCAA.

Vettel Begins Title Defense With a Win

It's the defending champion who won the season opener race at the Australian Grand Prix. Vettel claimed the first race of the 2011 campaign proving his supremacy over Lewis Hamilton. There's nothing have change since the qualification run except for the surprise podium of Renault driver Vitaly Petrov which became Russia's first ever podium finish in Formula 1. It wasn't really a tight game since Vettel build a considerable lead from the start as Hamilton suffered a broken floor that keeps him in a distance.


Meanwhile, 2009 champions Button, was left behind at sixth place after Alonso keep him out of the loop and because of his persistence of trying to cut Alonso at Turn One, he committed a mistake thus giving Alonso a drive through pass. At the moment, standings as follows:
  1. Sebastian Vettel = 25 points
  2. Lewis Hamilton  = 18 points
  3. Vitaly Petrov      = 15 points
  4. Fernando Alonso= 12 points
  5. Mark Webber     = 10 points
  6. Jenson Button     = 8 points
See you in Sepang for the Malaysian Grand Prix on April 10 for the second race of the season.

Rain And Storm In Mohali, India-pakistan semi final

Rain And Storm In Mohali, India-pakistan semi final

Its around 10:00pm here in mohali and its raining here in Mohali with storm. What effect do you think will it have on the match

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New sports law scholarship

Recently published scholarship includes:

Rachel Blumenfeld, Dog baiting abatement: using nuisance abatement to regulate dogfighting, 17 SPORTS LAWYERS JOURNAL 1 (2010)

Victor S. Broccoli, Williams v. NFL: the Eighth Circuit flags the NFL for interference with state drug testing laws, 17 SPORTS LAWYERS JOURNAL 283 (2010)

Bradley R. Bultman, Comment, Drafted player compensation: incorrectly hidden in the afternoon shadow of the nonstatutory labor exemption, 11 FLORDIA COASTAL LAW REVIEW 687 (2010)

Ashlee A. Cassman, Bring it on! Cheerleading vs. Title IX: could cheerleading ever be considered an athletic opportunity under Title IX, and if so, what implications would that have on university compliance?, 17 SPORTS LAWYERS JOURNAL 245 (2010)

Steve E. Cavezza, Can I see some ID? An Antitrust Analysis of NBA and NFL Draft Eligibility Rules, 9 UNIVERSITY OF DENVER SPORTS & ENTERTAINMENT LJ 22 (2011)

Sonali Chitre, Technology and copyright law—illuminating the NFL’s ‘blackout’ rule in game broadcasting, 33 HASTINGS COMMUNICATION & ENTERTAINMENT LAW JOURNAL 97 (2010)

Reid Coploff, Exploring gender discrimination in coaching, 17 SPORTS LAWYERS JOURNAL 195 (2010)

Chris Deubert, What’s a ‘Clean’ Agent to Do? The Case for a Cause of Action Against a Players Association, 18 VILLANOVA SPORTS AND ENTERTAINMENT LAW JOURNAL 1 (2011)

Marielle Elisabet Dirkx, Comment, Calling an audible: the Equal Protection Clause, cross-over cases, and the need to change Title IX regulations, 80 MISSISSIPPI LAW JOURNAL 411 (2010)

Marc Edelman & David Rosenthal, A sobering conflict: the call for consistency in the message colleges send about alcohol, 20 FORDHAM INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY, MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT LAW JOURNAL 1389 (2010)

Adam Epstein, Teaching Torts with Sports, 28 JOURNAL OF LEGAL EDUCATION 117 (2011)

Adam Epstein, Religion and Sports in the Undergraduate Classroom: A Surefire Way to Spark Student Interest, 21 SOUTHERN LAW JOURNAL 133 (2011)

Lauren A. Fields, Comment, Who owns dat?, 13 TULANE JOURNAL OF TECHNOLOGY & INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY 251 (2010)

John A. Fortunato & Shannon E. Martin, American Needle v. NFL: Legal and Sponsorship Implications, 9 UNIVERSITY OF DENVER SPORTS & ENTERTAINMENT LAW JOURNAL 73 (2011)

Nathaniel Grow, Defining the “business of baseball”: a proposed framework for determining the scope of professional baseball’s antitrust exemption, 44 UC DAVIS LAW REVIEW 557 (2010)

Benjamin B. Hanson, Comment, Defend the Williams Wall, leave professional sports drug testing policies in shambles: the decision and consequences of Williams v. NFL, 33 HAMLINE LAW REVIEW 327 (2010)

Casinova O. Henderson, How much discretion is too much for the NFL Commissioner to have over the players’ off-the-field conduct?, 17 SPORTS LAWYERS JOURNAL 167 (2010)

Robert S. Jeffrey, Note, Beyond the hype: the legal and practical consequences of American Needle, 11 FLORIDA COASTAL LAW REVIEW 667 (2010)

Brandon Johansson, Note, Pause the game: are video game producers punting away the publicity rights of retired athletes?, 10 NEVADA LAW JOURNAL 784 (2010)

Richard G. Johnson, Submarining due process: how the NCAA uses its restitution rule to deprive college athletes of their right of access to the courts...until Oliver v. NCAA, 11 FLORIDA COASTAL LAW REVIEW 459 (2010)

Michael Kim, Mixed martial arts: the evolution of a combat sport and its laws and regulations, 17 SPORTS LAWYERS JOURNAL 49 (2010)

Camalla M. Kimbrough, Comment, Upon further review: how the NFL’s exclusive licensing agreement with Reebok survives antitrust scrutiny despite the League’s flawed single-entity defense, 13 TULANE JOURNAL OF TECHNOLOGY & INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY 235 (2010)

Jeffrey F. Levine & Bram A. Maravent, Fumbling away the season: will the expiration of the NFL-NFLPA CBA result in the loss of the 2011 season?, 20 FORDHAM INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT LAW JOURNAL 1419 (2010)

Joseph A. Litman, Note, Tremendous upside potential: how a high-school basketball player might challenge the National Basketball Association’s eligibility requirements, 88 WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY LAW REVIEW 261 (2010)

Robert A. McCormick & Amy Christian McCormick, A trail of tears: the exploitation of the college athlete, 11 FLORIDA COASTAL LAW REVIEW 639 (2010)

Frank P. McQuillan, Minnesota’s miracle...on ice: the transfer-mation of student-athletes into free agents, 17 SPORTS LAWYERS JOURNAL 135 (2010)

Matthew J. Mitten & Hayden Opie, “Sports law”: implications for the development of international, comparative, and national law and global dispute resolution, 85 TULANE LAW REVIEW 269 (2010)

Brandon D. Morgan, Oliver v. NCAA: NCAA’s no agent rule called out, but remains safe, 17 SPORTS LAWYERS JOURNAL 303 (2010)

Anna Peterson, Comment, But she doesn’t run like a girl...: the ethic of fair play and the flexibility of the binary conception of sex, 19 TULANE JOURNAL OF COMPARATIVE & INTERNATIONAL LAW 315 (2010)

Adam Primm, Salary arbitration induced settlement in Major League Baseball: the new trend, 17 SPORTS LAWYERS JOURNAL 73 (2010)

J. Chadwick Schnee, Wrestling with retaliation: pinning down the Burlington “dissuading” standard under Title IX, 17 SPORTS LAWYERS JOURNAL 223 (2010)

Aaron Shepard, Note, Football’s stormy future: forecasting the upcoming National Football League labor negotiations, 33 COLUMBIA JOURNAL OF LAW & ARTS 527 (2010)

Patrick Donohue Sheridan, An Olympic solution to ambush marketing: how the London Olympics show the way to more effective trademark law, 17 SPORTS LAWYERS JOURNAL 27 (2010)

Brett T. Smith, The tax-exempt status of the NCAA: has the IRS fumbled the ball?, 17 SPORTS LAWYERS JOURNAL 117 (2010)

Jeffrey J.R. Sundram, Comment, The downside of success: how increased commercialism could cost the NCAA its biggest antitrust defense, 85 TULANE LAW REVIEW 543 (2010)

Seagull Haiyan Song, How should China respond to online piracy of live sports telecasts? A comparative study of Chinese copyright legislation to US and European Legislation, 9 UNIVERSITY OF DENVER SPORTS & ENTERTAINMENT LAW JOURNAL 1 (2011)

Robert J. Thorpe, Way out in left field: Crespin v. Albuquerque Baseball Club rejects nearly one hundred years of American jurisprudence by declining to adopt the baseball rule in New Mexico, 17 SPORTS LAWYERS JOURNAL 267 (2010)

Glenn M. Wong, Warren Zola and Chris Deubert, Going Pro in Sports: Improving Guidance to Student-Athletes in a Complicated Legal and Regulatory Environment, 28 CARDOZO ARTS & ENTERTAINMENT LAW JOURNAL 553 (2011)

Glenn M. Wong and Chris Deubert, National Basketball Association General Managers: An Analysis of the Responsibilities, Qualifications and Characteristics, 18 VILLANOVA SPORTS & ENTERTAINMENT LAW JOURNAL 213 (2011)

Monday, March 28, 2011

SPAIN 1 BELARUS 1 | U-21 INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY

The SPANISH U-21 FOOTBALL TEAM played a friendly match against BELARUS in Madrid with the final result a 1 - 1 draw. Spain used this match to fine-tune themselves for the upcoming U-21 EUROPEAN CHAMPIONSHIPS in Denmark next June where team also play for a place in the upcoming London Olympic Games.



Spanish U-21 International Bojan 

The Spanish team started with the following 11:

De Gea;

SPAIN 5 NORTHERN IRELAND 1 | EURO U -17 GROUP QUALIFIERS

The Spanish U-17 National Football Team played Northern Ireland today & won 5 – 1 in their Group qualifier for the upcoming U-17 European Championships. The Spanish Team clearly dominated & was 3 – 0 after 45 minutes. The second half saw Spanish Coach Gines take off some important players (the main name being Deulofeu) & give others a run. This did not seem to halt the Spaniards momentum as they

Quantifying the Impact of the Bias of Arsenal's Referees, Part 1

Special thanks to Dog Face for the data (he and I will be collaborating on the second post in this series), and to Chris from Soccer By Numbers for help in dissecting the stats.

A little over a month ago I completed a post that quantified the different treatment Arsenal appeared to receive from various referees in the Premier League.  In that post I used statistics from Tim at 7AM Kickoff to show how shots taken, the ratio of shots-on-goal to shots taken, and Premier League fantasy points for yellow and red cards to show that Webb, Dean, and Dowd are the least favorable referees for Arsenal while Foy and Atkinson are the most favorable.  What I was unable to do at the time was to show how these different match statistics impacted the outcome of the match.  Luckily, a writer with Untold Arsenal that goes by the name of Dog Face contacted me and supplied data going back to the 2005/06 season and for every match in the Premier League for each of the seasons covered.  This data allowed for the analysis of the impact of such calls on match outcome.

The Data and Statistical Methods Used

Dog Face's data set contains key match statistics from every Premier League match from the 2005/06 season through the latest matches of this season.  To eliminate any error associated with using data from the incomplete 2010/11 season, I focused on the following attributes for the 2005/06 through 2009/10 seasons:
  • Venue (home/away)
  • Shots
  • Shots-on-goal
  • Corners
  • Fouls
  • Yellow cards
  • Red cards
The data came to me paired - each row showing the data for both the home and away - so I broke it into unpaired team data.  I then calculated the differential for each statistic except venue, which was coded as a binary statistic (1 = home team, 0 = away team).

In attempting to assess the impact of play on the pitch and referee decisions, we have several options.  We could try and determine a relationship between goal differential and the inputs listed above, but this is problematic given the relative paucity of goals and resultant goal differential.  I've done enough analysis of soccer match data to know this is a fool's errand.  The better method is to determine the likelihood of winning a match given the differentials achieved by a team or dealt out by a referee.  To do this a binary logistic regression analysis was performed using all of the match statistics.  A set of dummy variables based upon the season the data point came from were created to observe any the affects of any overlooked variables in the analysis.  Such a regression analysis allowed the construction of a mathematical model to predict the likelihood of winning (earning 3 points), with (1-likelihood of winning) being equal to the likelihood of not winning (earning 1 point for a tie or 0 points for a loss).  Unfortunately, as it's name suggests binary logistic regression's output is binary in nature and thus cannot differentiate between a soccer match's three possible outcomes.  This is an compromise that must be made to use the analysis.

Like any other statistical analysis, binary logistic regression analysis allows statistical significance to be tested.  In this analysis, the general rule of thumb of p <= 0.05 was used to determine which terms in the analysis were significant (with allowances for slightly higher p-values in team data given the lower sample size).  Based upon this criteria, the following factors were significant in impacting the likelihood of winning a match:
  • Venue (home/away)
  • Shots-on-goal differential
  • Yellow card differential
  • Red card differential
The same criteria ended up also being significant when isolating for only the Arsenal data within the wider data set.  This allows for a comparison of the impact of various match attributes on the average Premier League team, and how Arsenal is impacted to a greater or lesser degree for the same match statistic.

The Effect of Yellow & Red Cards

A comparison of the effects of various match statistics could be completed once binary logistic models were created for the league and Arsenal over the five seasons.  The two of interest - yellow card and red card differential - are of most interest as the referee directly controls when a foul is simply a foul and when it is serious enough to warrant a card.  As noted by Chris at Soccer By The Numbers, binary logistic regression predictions present some challenges when trying to provide two dimensional plots of the likelihood of an event (in this case winning) versus a single variable (in this case yellow or red cards).  With Dog Face's data I used an approach of splitting the analyses into home and away games, and then set all other variables to their averages for each venue while sweeping through the max and min values of the variable of interest (either yellow or red cards).  The output generated by each sweep came in three forms: the nominal odds, the lower 95th percentile, and the upper 95th percentile.  Such an approach allows us to observe how sample size and the variability of outcome as the data set approaches its extremes (yellow card differentials of 7 or red card differentials of 2) impact the confidence in the model.

The plots below show the impact that yellow cards have on match outcome.  The first graph shows the impact at home, while the second graph shows the impact away.  The black lines represent the likelihoods based upon the full league data over the five seasons.  The red lines represent the likelihoods based upon Arsenal's data over the same five seasons.  Solid lines, and their associated equations, represent the nominal predictions from the model, while the dashed lines represent the upper and lower 95th percentile lines.



A few things are clear from the graphs above.
  1. Playing at home clearly has its advantages.  Even with a six yellow card advantage at an away match while achieving their average away number of shots on goal, Arsenal's likelihood of winning an away match is only slightly better than a home when they are even on yellow cards playing to their average home form.
  2. Clearly the reduction in data points for Arsenal (190 matches) versus the league wide data (1900 matches) contributes to the wide variation shown via the 95th percentile lines.  The relative obscurity of Arsenal matches with an absolute yellow card differential greater than 2 creates the uncertainty at the extremes - 88% of all Arsenal matches ended with an absolute yellow card differential of 2 or less.
  3. A yellow card at home is only slightly less costly than a yellow card away - each yellow card away results in a 0.4% lower likelihood of winning versus a yellow card at home.  Clearly, the difference in home and away likelihoods of winning can't be chalked up to a difference in the impact of yellow cards when the yellow card differential home and away is even.
  4. The non-parallel nature of the Arsenal and league average lines in both graphs indicates that the impact of yellow cards on Arsenal is more severe.  To be exact, it's nearly three times as severe.
Similar odds can be calculated for red cards.  The graphs below show such odds over the range of red cards in the data set, and follow the same conventions as the yellow card graphs above.



A few more conclusions can be drawn based upon the graphs above:
  1. Playing at home has even bigger advantages when it comes to red cards.  In the case of Arsenal, even when they get a red card away their likelihood of winning with average away form is only 0.6, which is still 0.09 (or 15%) lower than the average home performance with no red card advantage or disadvantage.
  2. While the Arsenal data set still shows greater variation than the league wide data due to decreased sample size, it does show greater separation in the data sets (especially at home).  It could be declared that the separation at home between the two data sets for 0 and +1 red card differential shows that Arsenal's improved chances of winning are statistically significant when compared with the league average.
  3. Red cards are certainly a greater detriment to a team's likelihood of winning.  For an average Premier League team, they're 5 times as costly at home and away versus yellow cards.  For Arsenal, they're 4 times as costly at home and nearly 5 times as costly away.
The graphs above indicate the change in the likelihood of winning with each passing yellow or red card in a match, assuming Arsenal is playing at their average form for shots on goal.  They're very useful for illustrative purposes, but not very useful in assessing the impact of the referees identified in my previous posts.  For such an analysis, the individual likelihoods of winning each match are constructed from the match data, and a comparison between the referees is made.

The Impact of Referee's Decisions in Arsenal's Matches

From the graphs above, the impact of Arsenal's yellow and red cards are not the same as those on the average Premier League team.  Arsenal pays a much bigger penalty for their red and yellow cards compared to the average Premier League team, and thus the differentiation in referee statistics shown in my last post has a much bigger effect on Arsenal.

Now that a binary logistic regression has been created to predict the effects of various match statistics on the likelihood of an Arsenal win, the contribution from each statistic for each match can be measured.  In studying the referees, the match statistics have been broken into three categories:
  1. Things neither team nor the ref can control - venue
  2. Things the referee tangentially controls - shots on goal, corners, fouls, etc.
  3. Things the referee directly controls - yellow and red cards
There certainly is some interplay between all three - a home team may sense a more lenient ref (see Scorecasting) and will likely achieve a higher number of fouls before a yellow card is thrown their way. Luckily, from a statistical point of view very few of these interactions matter.  The results from the binary logistic regression indicate a precious few variables are statistically significant: venue, shots-on-goal differential, yellow card differential, and red card differential.

To calculate the impact of each referee, a comparison was made between
  1. Each match's likelihood of winning given the match statistics as called versus
  2. How the likelihood of winning would have changed had Arsenal experienced their average number of cards (adjusted for whether the match was home or away).
A general linear model was then constructed with this data to observe the impacts that season and referee had on the difference to the expected average.  The results from the general linear model are presented below via the main effects and interaction effects plots.



The graphs above confirm that Phil Dowd provides the highest differential against Arsenal from their expected mean.  On average, he costs them 4% per match against their odds of winning a match if they had experienced their average card differential - equivalent to a little more than a yellow card per match officiated.  As mentioned in the previous post on this topic, this is especially odd given the high proportion of home matches that he has officiated (home matches should result in a lower number of cards and thus higher proportion of winning).  Howard Webb is the only other official of the eight with a negative differential.  Four of the remaining six officials are right at the average differential of zero, while Chris Foy and Mark Halsey provides the most beneficial treatment of Arsenal.

All of this demonstrates that of the referees who officiate the greatest number of Arsenal matches, Dowd and Webb are the most biased against the Gunners.  Is this due to them actually being biased against Arsenal, or are they simply "tougher" officials when it comes to every team?  The calculations to determine one theory over the other are a good bit more involved, and will have to wait until the second post in this series...

Sunday, March 27, 2011

SPANISH FOOTBALL | UPDATE ON THE 2º DIVISION

Spanish Football Sports Blog is a "hobby" written by a Spanish Football - Sports lover who finds time to spread, contact with & let non-Spanish speaking Sports fans around the World,  who admire along with me my Sporting passions,  to stay in touch daily with the most important news. I would love to have more time to expand further beyond the popular news pieces & Clubs, especially the fantastic

MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Panel on "The Coming War: Sports Labor Relations"

Earlier, this month I joined several panelists -- Russ Granik (former NBA Deputy Commissioner), Tom Penn (ESPN analyst and former Blazers Assistant GM), George Postolos (former President and CEO of the Rockets), and Andrew Zimbalist (noted sports economist at Smith College) - at the 2011 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics conference to discuss labor wars in the NBA and NFL. The panel was moderated by Jackie MacMullan, an ESPN columnist and author of several books, including a forthcoming one on Shaquille O'Neal.

Here is the video of our panel discussion:

MIT Tech TV

If the FFA National Curriculum Inspires You To Play Like Barca....Lots of Things Have Got To Work Together.?

Sourced from http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/newshome/9033287/for-real-in-salt-lake-barca-style-is-the-model/

The challenge this season in Junior Football in the ACT is to have coahes fully implement the 1-4-3-3  at all competitive levels at each age group. A big job in a volunteer environment!

As a very capable coach in the junior ranks, a coach who has never coached any rep teams, nor does this coach seem to have ambition to do so, who usually coaches Div 2 or 3, remarked to me on Saturday, before the start of the Women's Federation Cup final:

"When I say the "1-4-3-3" , what I really mean is, getting the young players to play a possession style of game, short passing and swift movement off the ball into good space, ready to receive the ball. Keep the ball, don't loose it. When they loose possession, defend as high and as quickly as they can and win it back. Sure, I'll play the 1-4-3-3 structure or its close relative when its 7v7 or 9v9, because that encourages an attacking, possession based game. I refer to Barca because they do it better than anyone else, even the Spanish national team. I know this requires young players with lots of technical skill to play it in a really classy way, and that fact is usually used by  some others to justify not playing this system. Well, to my way of thinking, this sort of argument is just crap. Who says you have to the best to want to play like Barca? The real point of it all is that by emphasising the aspects of individual skill and group play that Barca demonstrates, triangles is the big one, and the FFA national curriculum hopes we will implement, players at every level will get better at the game, enjoy it more, get lots more touches on the ball and stay with the game longer. Its fun to play this way. In that environment we produce more of the best for the nation. If every coach in the Junior age groups gets this going, we will make a big change to the character of football over a couple generations. And it will take that long. But it starts with the local club, Div 3 team, if you get my point. Oh yeah, the one thing that Barca shows my young players is that its OK to take the initiative, be creative, assume a position in space that provides a good option for the attack - not just stand in a pre-determined position like a bloody parade. And that happens with the 1-4-3-3 just like any other playing system. But like Barca, I encourage the players change positions (accept responsibility) as the need arises for short periods, that's OK, while others drop in to to cover them. When I watched the National Youth Championships, I didn't see much of that, which is a pity because without it the team plays like a half baked cake. If they played Futsal more, this would be second nature, but there'slenty of experienced coahes who warn young players off futsal. I haven't coached one player (girl or boy) who didn't get excited watching Barca videos, they know instinctively this is the game. ..."

I wish I could remember more of what his Coach had to say, but the game started and we gave that our attention. This coach struck me as being as up to date as anyone I met in the ACT. And Football is not his day job!



My point is this - we have lots of smart people in Football in our community and the real powerhouse in Football in the ACT region is in Junior Football. It's the Junior Football Clubs in the ACT region that need the support from the FFA and Capital Football. But mostly Junior Clubs say they don't hear from or see much at all from Capital Football and the FFA is just an abbreviation.

Worse still, Club officials seem to complain all too often and seemingly with good reason, of their inability to  get Capital Footbal to take any notice of their needs and ideas for the conduct of competitions and development.

What do you do at the Junior Club if this year your Club finds itself  with a large cohort of players that are graded as Div 1 standard at age, enough say to form two teams? Well the answer is a "no brainer' for the club - enter them both in the Div 1 competition. Give every young player a chance to play to his / her abilities. What then, if you are told by Capital Football that your club is limited to one Div 1 team? A competition administrative rule decision imposed on your Club. First you realised it existed. What do you do with teh team of players that don't get a place in the Div 1 competition? Its a disaster for a Junior Club, lucky enough to find itself in this psosition. Its a disaster for Football! And this is happening right now! How does this approach coexist with the direction the FFA wished to take via the National Curriculum and National Development Plan? Obviously it doesn't and junior Clubs know it and by taking the approach they would prefer in this matter, they seem to demonstrate that they are more in touch with the development needs of young players and intentions of the FFA than Capital Football. As one Club official remarked to me last week - "who makes these decisions?" Who indeed! Good football is underpinned by tip top administrative decision making, responsive to Club needs - and Junior Clubs can't do much about that if they are not engaged in a meaningful and constructive fashion and not by a sub committee or remote adminsitrative decosion making process. However, Zone Reps can, so use them! Sometimes I think the Junior Clubs forget just how much "football muscle" they possess and several of our Junior Clubs are very big indeed.

If we get the national curriculum message across to the Junior Clubs, this pivotal component in our Football constituency, help them to get mobilised to implement it, consult in a more substantial fashion with the Clubs, give them the competition structures that enable it to happen for all players at level, things will change fast.
Coach education and training has made good ground for Football at CLub level and it makes a vital contribution to change and the quality of football outcomes. And that provokes other questions - why not find a way to fund Development officer positions?

The new Capital Football Techncial Director, Royston Thomas made it clear at the Capital Football Annual General Meeting, that he would visit / consult/ communicate/ work with the Junior Clubs. That's a big step in the right direction. We'll hold him to it.

We are not the only ones thinking of these things in Football. This article form the USA, concerning a Club called "Real Salt Lake" who are implementing the 1-4-3-3 makes an interesting read. As they say - we are not alone!


For Real in Salt Lake, Barca style is the model
Simon Evans, Reuters
March 18, 2011, 9:20 am

MIAMI, March 17 (Reuters) - Most of the money and attention in the growth of soccer in the United States has been focused on Los Angeles and New York but the unlikely setting of Utah is where the game has developed in the most attractive way.
Real Salt Lake, founded just seven years ago, coached by a 38-year-old from Nebraska and playing in the suburb of Sandy, made their mark by winning the MLS Cup in 2009.
This year they have reached the last four of the CONCACAF Champions League which is the premier club competition for North, Central America and the Caribbean.
They are winning admirers, such as ex-France striker Thierry Henry, as much for the way they play as for their results. Real have adopted the Barcelona style of aesthetically-pleasing football based on a short passing game and swift movement.
"I believe in soccer being played that way, it's the way I like to watch it, it's what attracts me about the game when teams play a possession-orientated style, " head coach Jason Kreis told Reuters in an interview.

"It is something that I wanted to do but it is something also where you need the right tools to be able to do it.

"It has taken some time for us to get a critical mass -- the right number of players that are technically gifted enough and smart enough to play the way that we are trying to," he said.


While Kreis has never played or coached outside the U.S., his influence is drawn mainly from Spain and, despite his club's name reflecting a cooperation deal with Real Madrid it is their Catalan rivals' way of playing that has made its mark in Utah.
TOTAL FOOTBALL
"Barcelona have probably been playing that way since (Johan) Cruyff," he said, referring to the Spanish club's former Dutch forward and manager who brought 'Total Football' to the Catalan side from his days with the national team.
"I think we try in a lot of ways emulate that style, I think it would be very fair to say that we have Latin American players on our team who like to play that style and it is more a natural fit," added Kreis.

It is an approach which stands in contrast to the perhaps rather dated view of MLS as a physical league with teams who prefer to play a direct form of the game.

"I hope it continues to change in that direction," said Kreis. "I always think it is going to be a physical league because we have very good athletes, we have strong, big guys that can get the job done and can stretch their bodies maybe a bit further than in other places.

"But I would also say that some of the physical side of our game is because we haven't raised our technical ability as high as it probably should be -- the average player in our league is definitely not as technically gifted as the average player in the Premier League or La Liga or the Bundesliga.

"Because of that we have had a lot of poor first touches and poor tactical decisions on the ball which means that defenders can really jump into things," he said.

Salt Lake's approach is based around the cool play of deep lying midfielder Kyle Beckerman whose astute positional sense, vision and composed passing ensure that Real start moves on the floor from the back.

Kreis acknowledged that a direct approach can bring results but would like to see more teams in MLS play a short pass and move style. He believes that would require a major change in the way young players are developed in North America.

"There are lots of ways to look at soccer (it's) just that (the direct style) isn't particularly mine. If all soccer was to be the way I like to see it I think it would have to start well before college soccer. We need to start implementing that in our youth teams and our youth national teams," he said.

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