The Effect of £XI on Match Outcome

I know I haven't posted much over the last two weeks, but that's not because I have been sitting idle. Rather, I have been creating a post over at the Transfer Price Index blog that creates a model that links the likelihood of match outcome (win, tie, loss) to venue (home, away) and the transfer cost ratios of the starting XI (m£XIR) of the two teams. It's 13 pages long when printed, and serves as the third leg in the three foundational models I have created for the Transfer Price Index (match outcome vs. venue and m£XIR, table position vs. average £XI, and table position vs. average Sq£).

I highly recommend jumping over to the post and having a read - it will be a while before I post it here as the data it is based upon is exclusive to the TPI. I will, however, use the m£XIR model extensively in posts at my own blog, so a good understanding of the foundational document is recommended.

Yet again I must express my extreme gratitude to Paul Tomkins for allowing me to use the data, and to Graeme Riley for his updating of the data set with the 2010/11 season and transfer data. Especially important was Graeme's meticulous reconstruction of the starting XI of every match in the history of the Premier League and the 2011 CTPP costs for each player in the starting XI. He's got the tough, time intensive job compared to the tens of hours I take in analysis and writing I partake in once he's done the heavy lifting. There aren't enough pints in the world for me to repay him and Paul for the data they provide.